SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 March 2020

OKC105–104BOS
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsOKC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when OKC does.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Scoring
209
combined points
14.6 below the season average (223.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:28.3
Jayson Tatum → Steven Adams
Tatum (BOS) makes incidental contact with Adams's (OKC) hand on the ball before cleanly dislodging the ball, and incidental arm contact occurs after Tatum dislodges the ball.