Win probability changed during the game. · 10 August 2020
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Dozier · Plumlee · Bates-Diop · Morris · Bol
Closing lineup · LAL
Davis · James · Kuzma · Green · McGee
Nikola Jokic
26′ · -5
Jamal Murray
25′ · -7
Paul Millsap
24′ · +2
Michael Porter Jr.
24′ · +2
Torrey Craig
23′ · -9
PJ Dozier
27′ · +2
Mason Plumlee
25′ · 0
Keita Bates-Diop
22′ · -1
Monte Morris
23′ · +4
Bol Bol
21′ · -3
Anthony Davis
38′ · +13
LeBron James
38′ · -10
Kyle Kuzma
33′ · +16
Danny Green
30′ · -3
JaVale McGee
16′ · -5
Dion Waiters
27′ · +5
Alex Caruso
20′ · +21
Markieff Morris
18′ · -4
Dwight Howard
14′ · -10
Talen Horton-Tucker
6′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Craig, Porter, Millsap, and Jokic played 21.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Dozier, Morris, Bates-Diop, Bol, and Plumlee played 20.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Dozier, Morris, Porter, Millsap, and Plumlee played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Kuzma, McGee, Green, Davis, and James played 14.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Caruso, Kuzma, Morris, Davis, and Waiters played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Horton-Tucker, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Dozier, Porter, Millsap, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Dozier, Bates-Diop, Plumlee, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Caruso, Kuzma, Green, Davis, and James played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Kuzma, Green, Davis, Waiters, and James played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Caruso, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Green, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Caruso, Kuzma, McGee, Davis, and Waiters played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Green, Davis, Waiters, James, and Howard played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Morris, Davis, Waiters, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Caruso, Green, Davis, Waiters, and Howard played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Caruso, Green, Davis, James, and Howard played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

