SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 10 August 2020

DEN121–124LAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAL winsDEN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when DEN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DEN

PJ Dozier
Mason Plumlee
Keita Bates-Diop
Monte Morris
Bol Bol

Dozier · Plumlee · Bates-Diop · Morris · Bol

Closing lineup · LAL

Anthony Davis
LeBron James
Kyle Kuzma
Danny Green
JaVale McGee

Davis · James · Kuzma · Green · McGee

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DEN
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

26′ · -5

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

25′ · -7

Paul Millsap

Paul Millsap

24′ · +2

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.

24′ · +2

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

23′ · -9

PJ Dozier

PJ Dozier

27′ · +2

Mason Plumlee

Mason Plumlee

25′ · 0

Keita Bates-Diop

Keita Bates-Diop

22′ · -1

Monte Morris

Monte Morris

23′ · +4

Bol Bol

Bol Bol

21′ · -3

LAL
Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

38′ · +13

LeBron James

LeBron James

38′ · -10

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma

33′ · +16

Danny Green

Danny Green

30′ · -3

JaVale McGee

JaVale McGee

16′ · -5

Dion Waiters

Dion Waiters

27′ · +5

Alex Caruso

Alex Caruso

20′ · +21

Markieff Morris

Markieff Morris

18′ · -4

Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard

14′ · -10

Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen Horton-Tucker

6′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and LAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Craig, Porter, Millsap, and Jokic played 21.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Dozier, Morris, Bates-Diop, Bol, and Plumlee played 20.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Dozier, Morris, Porter, Millsap, and Plumlee played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Kuzma, McGee, Green, Davis, and James played 14.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

  • Caruso, Kuzma, Morris, Davis, and Waiters played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Horton-Tucker, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Dozier, Porter, Millsap, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Dozier, Bates-Diop, Plumlee, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Caruso, Kuzma, Green, Davis, and James played 5.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Kuzma, Green, Davis, Waiters, and James played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Caruso, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Green, Morris, Waiters, James, and Howard played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Caruso, Kuzma, McGee, Davis, and Waiters played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Green, Davis, Waiters, James, and Howard played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Caruso, Morris, Davis, Waiters, and James played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Caruso, Green, Davis, Waiters, and Howard played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Caruso, Green, Davis, James, and Howard played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
245
combined points
21.4 above the season average (223.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors