Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2020
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 49 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Wood · Tucker · Harden · House · Tate
Closing lineup · POR
McCollum · Lillard · Covington · Jones · Nurkic
Christian Wood
44′ · -6
P.J. Tucker
43′ · -6
James Harden
43′ · -6
Danuel House Jr.
38′ · -6
David Nwaba
27′ · -5
Sterling Brown
20′ · -6
Jae'Sean Tate
37′ · +14
Brodric Thomas
10′ · +4
Bruno Caboclo
4′ · +7
CJ McCollum
44′ · +8
Damian Lillard
41′ · +9
Robert Covington
38′ · +16
Derrick Jones Jr.
36′ · +5
Jusuf Nurkic
35′ · +10
Carmelo Anthony
20′ · -16
Rodney Hood
16′ · -1
Enes Freedom
18′ · -8
Gary Trent Jr.
6′ · -8
Anfernee Simons
10′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Wood, House, Nwaba, Tucker, and Harden played 12.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Wood, House, Tate, Tucker, and Harden played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
House, Brown, Tate, Tucker, and Harden played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jones, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 28.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Freedom, McCollum, Covington, Hood, and Anthony played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Lillard, McCollum, Covington, Hood, and Nurkic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Wood, Nwaba, Brown, Tate, and Thomas played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, Brown, Tate, Tucker, and Harden played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
House, Nwaba, Tate, Tucker, and Harden played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, House, Brown, Tucker, and Harden played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, Nwaba, Tate, Thomas, and Caboclo played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Wood, Nwaba, Tate, Tucker, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, House, Brown, Tate, and Thomas played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jones, Simons, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Trent, Freedom, Lillard, Hood, and Anthony played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Simons, Freedom, McCollum, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Simons, Trent, Freedom, Hood, and Anthony played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Simons, Trent, Freedom, and Anthony played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, Hood, and Anthony played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Simons, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
