Win probability changed during the game. · 20 February 2021
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Oubre · Wiggins · Toscano-Anderson · Wanamaker · Paschall
Closing lineup · CHA
Rozier · Hayward · Washington · Ball · Bridges
Kelly Oubre Jr.
37′ · -7
Andrew Wiggins
33′ · -5
Draymond Green
32′ · -5
Mychal Mulder
16′ · -22
Juan Toscano-Anderson
15′ · -16
Kent Bazemore
22′ · +10
Brad Wanamaker
34′ · +15
Damion Lee
23′ · +16
Eric Paschall
29′ · +4
Terry Rozier
39′ · +8
Gordon Hayward
33′ · +1
P.J. Washington
32′ · +4
LaMelo Ball
32′ · -3
Cody Zeller
21′ · 0
Miles Bridges
22′ · +3
Malik Monk
22′ · +3
Bismack Biyombo
21′ · -3
Jalen McDaniels
19′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Lee, Paschall, Wanamaker, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 11.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Oubre, Mulder, Toscano-Anderson, Green, and Wiggins played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Oubre, Lee, Wanamaker, Green, and Bazemore played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Rozier, Washington, Ball, Hayward, and Zeller played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Bridges, Washington, Ball, and Hayward played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Rozier, Monk, Washington, Hayward, and Zeller played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Green, and Wiggins played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Mulder, Paschall, Wanamaker, and Green played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Oubre, Paschall, Wanamaker, Green, and Bazemore played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Oubre, Toscano-Anderson, Wanamaker, Green, and Wiggins played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Mulder, Toscano-Anderson, Green, and Bazemore played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Oubre, Lee, Paschall, Wanamaker, and Wiggins played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Lee, Paschall, Green, and Wiggins played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Mulder, Toscano-Anderson, Paschall, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Rozier, Monk, Bridges, McDaniels, and Biyombo played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, Hayward, and Biyombo played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Monk, Bridges, Ball, Hayward, and Biyombo played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Monk, Bridges, McDaniels, and Zeller played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, Ball, and Biyombo played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Bridges, McDaniels, Ball, and Biyombo played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Monk, Washington, Hayward, and Biyombo played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Monk, Washington, Ball, Hayward, and Biyombo played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Washington, McDaniels, Ball, and Hayward played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Bridges, Ball, Hayward, and Zeller played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Monk, Washington, Ball, and Biyombo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, McDaniels, Ball, Hayward, and Zeller played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Rozier, Monk, Washington, Ball, and Zeller played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Monk, Bridges, Ball, and Zeller played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

