Win probability changed during the game. · 23 February 2021
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CLE leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Huerter · Snell · Gallinari · Hill
Closing lineup · CLE
Garland · Okoro · Allen · Sexton · Stevens
Trae Young
38′ · +7
Kevin Huerter
37′ · +21
Clint Capela
37′ · +17
Tony Snell
33′ · +12
John Collins
13′ · +4
Danilo Gallinari
23′ · -10
Solomon Hill
22′ · -23
Onyeka Okongwu
10′ · -10
Rajon Rondo
14′ · -18
Skylar Mays
12′ · -5
Darius Garland
43′ · +1
Isaac Okoro
37′ · -6
Jarrett Allen
34′ · -5
Collin Sexton
34′ · -9
Dean Wade
21′ · -14
Cedi Osman
20′ · +10
Lamar Stevens
16′ · +12
JaVale McGee
14′ · +6
Dylan Windler
22′ · +10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and CLE.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Collins, Huerter, Young, Snell, and Capela played 11.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Huerter, Young, Gallinari, Snell, and Capela played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Huerter, Young, Snell, Hill, and Capela played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Allen, Sexton, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 19.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 17 points.
Osman, Garland, Windler, Stevens, and McGee played 10.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Allen, Sexton, Garland, Windler, and Okoro played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Huerter, Mays, Rondo, Hill, and Capela played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Huerter, Young, Okongwu, Gallinari, and Hill played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Young, Okongwu, Rondo, Gallinari, and Hill played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Okongwu, Mays, Rondo, Gallinari, and Hill played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mays, Rondo, Snell, Hill, and Capela played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Huerter, Young, Gallinari, Hill, and Capela played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Collins, Young, Mays, Snell, and Capela played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Osman, Allen, Garland, Windler, and Okoro played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Osman, Sexton, Okoro, Stevens, and McGee played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Sexton, Windler, Okoro, and McGee played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Osman, Allen, Sexton, Okoro, and Stevens played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Sexton, Garland, Okoro, and Stevens played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

