Win probability changed during the game. · 28 February 2021
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Beal · Westbrook · Hachimura · Neto · Bertans
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Walker · Green · Theis · Ojeleye
Bradley Beal
39′ · +2
Russell Westbrook
36′ · -12
Rui Hachimura
25′ · -1
Garrison Mathews
16′ · -15
Moritz Wagner
13′ · -12
Raul Neto
27′ · +3
Davis Bertans
26′ · +10
Alex Len
7′ · -1
Deni Avdija
7′ · -1
Isaac Bonga
16′ · +8
Robin Lopez
28′ · +14
Jayson Tatum
39′ · +13
Kemba Walker
33′ · +4
Javonte Green
33′ · -1
Daniel Theis
32′ · +5
Tristan Thompson
19′ · +8
Payton Pritchard
21′ · -9
Semi Ojeleye
19′ · +1
Robert Williams III
18′ · -7
Jeff Teague
22′ · -3
Grant Williams
6′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and BOS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Wagner, Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, and Beal played 8.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Bonga, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Boston Celtics
Tatum, Theis, Green, Thompson, and Walker played 11.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Tatum, Ojeleye, Theis, Green, and Walker played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, Williams, Williams, Pritchard, and Teague played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Bonga, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Neto played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Avdija, Westbrook, Bertans, Len, and Neto played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hachimura, Mathews, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Bonga, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hachimura, Bonga, Westbrook, Lopez, and Beal played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, and Beal played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wagner, Hachimura, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wagner, Bonga, Mathews, Beal, and Neto played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Boston Celtics
Tatum, Ojeleye, Williams, Pritchard, and Teague played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Theis, Green, Teague, Thompson, and Walker played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Tatum, Theis, Williams, Green, and Walker played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ojeleye, Williams, Green, Pritchard, and Walker played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Tatum, Theis, Green, Teague, and Walker played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ojeleye, Theis, Green, Pritchard, and Walker played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Tatum, Theis, Pritchard, Teague, and Thompson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Tatum, Ojeleye, Pritchard, Teague, and Thompson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

