Win probability changed during the game. · 16 March 2021
It was more exciting than 57% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Ball · Williamson · Bledsoe · Alexander-Walker
Closing lineup · POR
Lillard · Covington · McCollum · Anthony · Trent
Brandon Ingram
36′ · -4
Lonzo Ball
35′ · -4
Zion Williamson
33′ · -3
Eric Bledsoe
27′ · -12
Steven Adams
25′ · +4
Josh Hart
28′ · -2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
25′ · +2
Jaxson Hayes
19′ · +6
Kira Lewis Jr.
9′ · +6
Willy Hernangomez
2′ · 0
Damian Lillard
41′ · +9
Robert Covington
37′ · +11
Enes Freedom
28′ · -7
CJ McCollum
26′ · -8
Derrick Jones Jr.
18′ · 0
Carmelo Anthony
30′ · +1
Nassir Little
18′ · -11
Gary Trent Jr.
32′ · +8
Rodney Hood
11′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Ball, Williamson, Bledsoe, and Adams played 17.2 minutes together.
Hart, Williamson, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Lewis played 8.2 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Alexander-Walker, and Adams played 4.3 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each New Orleans Pelicans lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jones, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Covington played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Trent, Little, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Trent, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Bledsoe, and Adams played 3.5 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Hayes, and Alexander-Walker played 3.2 minutes together.
Ingram, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Bledsoe played 2.3 minutes together.
Ball, Hart, Williamson, Hayes, and Alexander-Walker played 2.1 minutes together.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Ball, Williamson, and Alexander-Walker played 2.1 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Williamson, and Bledsoe played 1.5 minutes together.
Ingram, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Lewis played 1.2 minutes together.
Hart, Williamson, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Bledsoe played 1.1 minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Trent, Little, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Trent, Lillard, Covington, Hood, and Anthony played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Jones, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Hood played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Trent, Freedom, Lillard, and Covington played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Trent, McCollum, Covington, Hood, and Anthony played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Trent, Little, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

