Win probability changed during the game. · 9 April 2021
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Hachimura · Westbrook · Beal · Avdija · Neto
Closing lineup · GSW
Oubre · Wiggins · Curry · Green · Lee
Rui Hachimura
38′ · +13
Russell Westbrook
37′ · +1
Bradley Beal
30′ · +1
Deni Avdija
21′ · -13
Alex Len
20′ · -2
Ish Smith
19′ · 0
Davis Bertans
27′ · +4
Garrison Mathews
13′ · -3
Robin Lopez
27′ · +7
Raul Neto
7′ · +7
Kelly Oubre Jr.
37′ · -13
Andrew Wiggins
36′ · +12
Stephen Curry
35′ · -16
Draymond Green
33′ · -7
James Wiseman
23′ · +4
Kent Bazemore
28′ · +2
Kevon Looney
19′ · -6
Damion Lee
15′ · 0
Jordan Poole
15′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Hachimura, Avdija, Westbrook, Beal, and Len played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Golden State Warriors
Oubre, Wiseman, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 9.0 minutes together.
Oubre, Looney, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 7.8 minutes together.
Lee, Poole, Wiseman, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 6.3 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Neto played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hachimura, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Smith played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Smith played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hachimura, Mathews, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hachimura, Mathews, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Mathews, Avdija, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Neto played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Golden State Warriors
Oubre, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 5.7 minutes together.
Oubre, Looney, Lee, Curry, and Bazemore played 3.3 minutes together.
Oubre, Looney, Curry, Green, and Bazemore played 2.7 minutes together.
Looney, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 2.6 minutes together.
Oubre, Lee, Poole, Wiseman, and Bazemore played 2.6 minutes together.
Oubre, Looney, Lee, Poole, and Bazemore played 2.6 minutes together.
Wiseman, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 2.1 minutes together.
Oubre, Poole, Wiseman, Green, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.
Oubre, Poole, Wiseman, Curry, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

