SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 9 April 2021

WAS110–107GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsWAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when WAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · WAS

Rui Hachimura
Russell Westbrook
Bradley Beal
Deni Avdija
Raul Neto

Hachimura · Westbrook · Beal · Avdija · Neto

Closing lineup · GSW

Kelly Oubre Jr.
Andrew Wiggins
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Damion Lee

Oubre · Wiggins · Curry · Green · Lee

Q1Q2Q3Q4
WAS
Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

38′ · +13

Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

37′ · +1

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

30′ · +1

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija

21′ · -13

Alex Len

Alex Len

20′ · -2

Ish Smith

Ish Smith

19′ · 0

Davis Bertans

Davis Bertans

27′ · +4

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

13′ · -3

Robin Lopez

Robin Lopez

27′ · +7

Raul Neto

Raul Neto

7′ · +7

GSW
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

37′ · -13

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

36′ · +12

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

35′ · -16

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

33′ · -7

James Wiseman

James Wiseman

23′ · +4

Kent Bazemore

Kent Bazemore

28′ · +2

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

19′ · -6

Damion Lee

Damion Lee

15′ · 0

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

15′ · +7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Washington Wizards

  • Hachimura, Avdija, Westbrook, Beal, and Len played 10.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Oubre, Wiseman, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 9.0 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Looney, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 7.8 minutes together.

  • Lee, Poole, Wiseman, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 6.3 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Washington Wizards

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Neto played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hachimura, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Smith played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mathews, Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, and Smith played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hachimura, Mathews, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hachimura, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hachimura, Mathews, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Mathews, Avdija, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Neto played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Oubre, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 5.7 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Looney, Lee, Curry, and Bazemore played 3.3 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Looney, Curry, Green, and Bazemore played 2.7 minutes together.

  • Looney, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Lee, Poole, Wiseman, and Bazemore played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Looney, Lee, Poole, and Bazemore played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Wiseman, Curry, Green, Bazemore, and Wiggins played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Poole, Wiseman, Green, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Oubre, Poole, Wiseman, Curry, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
217
combined points
7.2 below the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

11 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:25.1
Bradley Beal → Warriors
Beal (WAS) gathers the ball and takes three steps as he drives to the basket.