Win probability changed during the game. · 21 April 2021
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Towns · McDaniels · Rubio · Russell · Hernangomez
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Barnes · Harkless · Haliburton · Jones
Karl-Anthony Towns
33′ · -21
Jaden McDaniels
32′ · -21
Ricky Rubio
29′ · -5
Anthony Edwards
28′ · -3
Josh Okogie
24′ · +7
D'Angelo Russell
29′ · -6
Juancho Hernangomez
19′ · +12
Jarred Vanderbilt
16′ · +14
Jordan McLaughlin
6′ · +1
Naz Reid
24′ · +7
De'Aaron Fox
39′ · +13
Harrison Barnes
38′ · +5
Buddy Hield
38′ · +13
Maurice Harkless
26′ · +6
Hassan Whiteside
13′ · +1
Tyrese Haliburton
29′ · -1
Chimezie Metu
13′ · -5
Delon Wright
15′ · -12
Terence Davis
7′ · -12
Damian Jones
22′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns, Okogie, Edwards, McDaniels, and Rubio played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Towns, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Rubio played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Hernangomez, Vanderbilt, McLaughlin, and Reid played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Fox, Whiteside, Barnes, and Harkless played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Jones, Fox, Haliburton, and Barnes played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wright, Hield, Jones, Fox, and Harkless played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Hernangomez, Okogie, Vanderbilt, and Reid played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Towns, Edwards, McDaniels, and Rubio played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Russell, Hernangomez, Vanderbilt, Reid, and Rubio played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Russell, Towns, Okogie, Reid, and McDaniels played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Towns, Okogie, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Russell, Towns, Okogie, McDaniels, and Rubio played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Towns, Hernangomez, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hernangomez, Vanderbilt, Reid, Edwards, and Rubio played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Russell, Towns, Hernangomez, Vanderbilt, and McLaughlin played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Metu, Davis, Haliburton, and Harkless played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Wright, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Barnes played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wright, Metu, Davis, Haliburton, and Barnes played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Wright, Jones, Fox, Haliburton, and Barnes played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Jones, Fox, Barnes, and Harkless played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hield, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Harkless played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hield, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wright, Hield, Jones, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

