Win probability changed during the game. · 1 May 2021
It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Westbrook · Beal · Neto · Hachimura · Bertans
Closing lineup · DAL
Finney-Smith · Doncic · Richardson · Cauley-Stein · Hardaway
Russell Westbrook
40′ · -3
Bradley Beal
37′ · 0
Raul Neto
29′ · +12
Rui Hachimura
29′ · -3
Alex Len
5′ · -11
Davis Bertans
26′ · +4
Daniel Gafford
25′ · -7
Ish Smith
24′ · -3
Chandler Hutchison
8′ · -11
Robin Lopez
18′ · +17
Dorian Finney-Smith
40′ · +4
Luka Doncic
39′ · +6
Maxi Kleber
27′ · -6
Josh Richardson
23′ · -6
Dwight Powell
19′ · +1
Willie Cauley-Stein
27′ · -3
Tim Hardaway Jr.
27′ · +7
Jalen Brunson
15′ · -9
Nicolo Melli
10′ · +2
Trey Burke
12′ · +9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Beal, and Neto played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Beal, Len, and Neto played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Powell played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hardaway, and Burke played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Cauley-Stein, Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Doncic played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Hutchison, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Bertans played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hachimura, Gafford, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Lopez, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Beal played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Neto played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Gafford, Smith, Beal, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Beal played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hardaway, Burke, and Powell played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Cauley-Stein, Richardson, Brunson, Melli, and Hardaway played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Powell played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Doncic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Cauley-Stein, Brunson, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, and Powell played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Hardaway, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.