SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 May 2021

WAS133–132IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsWAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when WAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · WAS

Russell Westbrook
Rui Hachimura
Raul Neto
Alex Len
Daniel Gafford

Westbrook · Hachimura · Neto · Len · Gafford

Closing lineup · IND

Domantas Sabonis
Caris LeVert
Doug McDermott
Justin Holiday
T.J. McConnell

Sabonis · LeVert · McDermott · Holiday · McConnell

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
WAS
Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

44′ · +4

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

39′ · +8

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

35′ · +3

Raul Neto

Raul Neto

26′ · -10

Alex Len

Alex Len

20′ · -9

Ish Smith

Ish Smith

19′ · -15

Davis Bertans

Davis Bertans

34′ · +17

Chandler Hutchison

Chandler Hutchison

12′ · +5

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

17′ · +12

Robin Lopez

Robin Lopez

16′ · -2

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

3′ · -8

IND
Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

43′ · -3

Caris LeVert

Caris LeVert

41′ · +3

Edmond Sumner

Edmond Sumner

30′ · +1

Doug McDermott

Doug McDermott

26′ · +5

Oshae Brissett

Oshae Brissett

24′ · +10

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

27′ · -7

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

23′ · -5

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

19′ · +2

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

16′ · -7

Kelan Martin

Kelan Martin

15′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Washington Wizards

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Beal played 8.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Beal, Len, and Neto played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Neto played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Brissett, and McDermott played 19.1 minutes together.

  • Holiday, Bitadze, Martin, Holiday, and McConnell played 9.6 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Holiday, Holiday, and McConnell played 5.9 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Indiana Pacers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Washington Wizards

  • Lopez, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hutchison, Hachimura, Beal, Len, and Neto played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, Len, and Neto played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Beal played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hutchison, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Bertans played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hutchison, Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, and Beal played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Smith, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Beal played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Indiana Pacers

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Brissett, and Holiday played 5.2 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Martin, and McDermott played 4.0 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Bitadze, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Holiday, Bitadze, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Bitadze, Martin, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Holiday, and McDermott played 1.2 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
265
combined points
40.8 above the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

22 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:18.0
Daniel Gafford → Domantas Sabonis
Gafford (WAS) dislodges Sabonis (IND) from his rebounding position prior to any arm contact by Sabonis. The foul should have been called on Gafford.
Foul: Shooting · 00:45.0
Domantas Sabonis → Russell Westbrook
Sabonis (IND) extends his forearm and makes contact with Westbrook's (WAS) body that affects his driving shot attempt.
Turnover: Traveling · 01:45.4
Kelan Martin → Wizards
Martin (IND) splits his feet at the start of his dribble.