Win probability changed during the game. · 8 May 2021
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Westbrook · Hachimura · Neto · Len · Gafford
Closing lineup · IND
Sabonis · LeVert · McDermott · Holiday · McConnell
Russell Westbrook
44′ · +4
Bradley Beal
39′ · +8
Rui Hachimura
35′ · +3
Raul Neto
26′ · -10
Alex Len
20′ · -9
Ish Smith
19′ · -15
Davis Bertans
34′ · +17
Chandler Hutchison
12′ · +5
Daniel Gafford
17′ · +12
Robin Lopez
16′ · -2
Garrison Mathews
3′ · -8
Domantas Sabonis
43′ · -3
Caris LeVert
41′ · +3
Edmond Sumner
30′ · +1
Doug McDermott
26′ · +5
Oshae Brissett
24′ · +10
Justin Holiday
27′ · -7
T.J. McConnell
23′ · -5
Aaron Holiday
19′ · +2
Goga Bitadze
16′ · -7
Kelan Martin
15′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Beal played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Beal, Len, and Neto played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Neto played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Indiana Pacers
Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Brissett, and McDermott played 19.1 minutes together.
Holiday, Bitadze, Martin, Holiday, and McConnell played 9.6 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Holiday, Holiday, and McConnell played 5.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Indiana Pacers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Lopez, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hutchison, Hachimura, Beal, Len, and Neto played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, Len, and Neto played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Beal played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hutchison, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Bertans played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, and Len played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Westbrook, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hutchison, Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, and Beal played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Smith, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Beal played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Indiana Pacers
Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Brissett, and Holiday played 5.2 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Martin, and McDermott played 4.0 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Bitadze, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.5 minutes together.
Sabonis, Holiday, Bitadze, Holiday, and McConnell played 2.2 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Bitadze, Martin, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.
Sabonis, LeVert, Sumner, Holiday, and McDermott played 1.2 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

