Win probability changed during the game. · 13 May 2021
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 38 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Lillard · Powell · McCollum · Covington · Anthony
Closing lineup · PHX
Crowder · Bridges · Booker · Paul · Craig
Damian Lillard
43′ · -2
Norman Powell
41′ · 0
CJ McCollum
39′ · +2
Robert Covington
37′ · -2
Jusuf Nurkic
26′ · +3
Carmelo Anthony
22′ · -1
Enes Freedom
16′ · -5
Anfernee Simons
16′ · 0
Jae Crowder
41′ · -2
Mikal Bridges
41′ · +5
Devin Booker
35′ · +2
Chris Paul
32′ · -3
Dario Saric
31′ · -10
Cameron Payne
27′ · +3
Frank Kaminsky
14′ · +7
Torrey Craig
15′ · +2
Jevon Carter
5′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 20.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 17.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kaminsky, Booker, Payne, Craig, and Bridges played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kaminsky, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Crowder played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Powell, Simons, Freedom, McCollum, and Anthony played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Powell, Simons, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Powell, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Covington played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Powell, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Anthony played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Powell, Simons, Lillard, Covington, and Nurkic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Payne, Craig, Crowder, and Saric played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Payne, Carter, Crowder, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Crowder played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Bridges, Carter, Crowder, and Saric played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Kaminsky, Booker, Bridges, and Crowder played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

