SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 13 May 2021

POR117–118PHX
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 38 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ PHX winsPOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when POR does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · POR

Damian Lillard
Norman Powell
CJ McCollum
Robert Covington
Carmelo Anthony

Lillard · Powell · McCollum · Covington · Anthony

Closing lineup · PHX

Jae Crowder
Mikal Bridges
Devin Booker
Chris Paul
Torrey Craig

Crowder · Bridges · Booker · Paul · Craig

Q1Q2Q3Q4
POR
Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

43′ · -2

Norman Powell

Norman Powell

41′ · 0

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum

39′ · +2

Robert Covington

Robert Covington

37′ · -2

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

26′ · +3

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony

22′ · -1

Enes Freedom

Enes Freedom

16′ · -5

Anfernee Simons

Anfernee Simons

16′ · 0

PHX
Jae Crowder

Jae Crowder

41′ · -2

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

41′ · +5

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

35′ · +2

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

32′ · -3

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

31′ · -10

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

27′ · +3

Frank Kaminsky

Frank Kaminsky

14′ · +7

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

15′ · +2

Jevon Carter

Jevon Carter

5′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and PHX.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 20.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Anthony played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 17.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kaminsky, Booker, Payne, Craig, and Bridges played 7.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kaminsky, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Crowder played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Powell, Simons, Freedom, McCollum, and Anthony played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Simons, Lillard, McCollum, Covington, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Powell, Simons, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Powell, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Covington played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Powell, Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Powell, Freedom, Lillard, McCollum, and Anthony played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Powell, Simons, Lillard, Covington, and Nurkic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Payne, Craig, Crowder, and Saric played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Payne, Carter, Crowder, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Crowder played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Bridges, Carter, Crowder, and Saric played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Payne, Bridges, Crowder, and Saric played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Kaminsky, Booker, Bridges, and Crowder played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
8359
49% of capacity
Mortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
Scoring
235
combined points
10.8 above the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

23 calls reviewed5 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Backcourt Turnover · 00:01.1
CJ McCollum → Suns
McCollum (POR) is established in the frontcourt when he deflects the throw-in into the backcourt. He then illegally gains possession of the ball in the backcourt.
Foul: Personal · 00:04.4
Norman Powell → Devin Booker
Powell (POR) wraps his arms around Booker (PHX) and the contact affects his FOM.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:34.7
Mikal Bridges → Trail Blazers
Bridges (PHX) slides his pivot foot at the start of his dribble.
Foul: Shooting · 01:04.3
Jusuf Nurkic → Dario Saric
Nurkic (POR) maintains a legal guarding position with a collapsed forearm against Saric's (PHX) side and he absorbs the contact during the shot attempt at the basket.