Win probability changed during the game. · 16 May 2021
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Carter · Smith · Craig · Galloway · Moore
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Jones · Eubanks · Bates-Diop · Weatherspoon
Jevon Carter
43′ · +5
Jalen Smith
41′ · +5
Cameron Payne
27′ · +11
Dario Saric
27′ · +13
Mikal Bridges
5′ · +8
Torrey Craig
30′ · +8
Frank Kaminsky
20′ · -10
Langston Galloway
26′ · -21
E'Twaun Moore
21′ · -9
Jakob Poeltl
30′ · -7
Dejounte Murray
30′ · -7
Lonnie Walker IV
27′ · -8
DeMar DeRozan
25′ · -4
Keldon Johnson
22′ · -4
Devin Vassell
26′ · +7
Rudy Gay
20′ · -1
Tre Jones
18′ · +5
Drew Eubanks
9′ · +9
Gorgui Dieng
9′ · -4
Keita Bates-Diop
12′ · +2
Quinndary Weatherspoon
12′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Payne, Craig, Carter, Smith, and Saric played 13.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Kaminsky, Carter, Smith, Moore, and Galloway played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Payne, Bridges, Carter, Smith, and Saric played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Johnson, and DeRozan played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Gay, and DeRozan played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bates-Diop, Weatherspoon, Vassell, Jones, and Dieng played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Kaminsky, Craig, Carter, Moore, and Galloway played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Payne, Carter, Smith, Saric, and Galloway played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Craig, Carter, Smith, Moore, and Galloway played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kaminsky, Payne, Craig, Carter, and Smith played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kaminsky, Craig, Moore, Saric, and Galloway played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kaminsky, Payne, Carter, Smith, and Galloway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Kaminsky, Craig, Smith, Moore, and Galloway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Craig, Smith, Moore, Saric, and Galloway played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
San Antonio Spurs
Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Weatherspoon, Vassell, and Jones played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Vassell, Gay, and DeRozan played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Johnson, and Gay played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Johnson, and Vassell played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Walker, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Dieng played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Eubanks, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Gay played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Eubanks, Vassell, Jones, Gay, and DeRozan played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

