Win probability changed during the game. · 27 October 2021
It was more exciting than 60% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Barnes · Fox · Haliburton · Hield · Mitchell
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Bridges · Crowder · Paul · Johnson
Harrison Barnes
39′ · +4
De'Aaron Fox
37′ · 0
Tyrese Haliburton
35′ · -1
Richaun Holmes
29′ · -1
Maurice Harkless
25′ · +5
Buddy Hield
27′ · +3
Davion Mitchell
19′ · +9
Alex Len
18′ · +1
Terence Davis
11′ · -5
Devin Booker
37′ · +4
Deandre Ayton
34′ · +8
Mikal Bridges
33′ · +6
Jae Crowder
32′ · +1
Chris Paul
30′ · -10
Cameron Johnson
23′ · -9
Elfrid Payton
13′ · +2
Landry Shamet
19′ · -7
JaVale McGee
14′ · -8
Abdel Nader
5′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Fox, Haliburton, Barnes, and Harkless played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Davis, Haliburton, Barnes, and Len played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Hield, Davis, Haliburton, and Harkless played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder played 19.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Shamet, Johnson, McGee, and Crowder played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Bridges, Shamet, Ayton, and Johnson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Fox, Mitchell, Barnes, and Len played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Fox, Haliburton, Mitchell, Barnes, and Len played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Holmes, Hield, Haliburton, Mitchell, and Harkless played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Haliburton, and Barnes played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Barnes, and Harkless played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Fox, Barnes, Harkless, and Len played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Haliburton, Mitchell, Barnes, and Len played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Shamet, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Shamet, Johnson, McGee, Crowder, and Payton played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Bridges, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Nader, Bridges, Ayton, and Payton played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Bridges, Ayton, Johnson, and Payton played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Bridges, Ayton, Crowder, and Payton played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Nader, Shamet, Ayton, and Johnson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Bridges, Shamet, Ayton, and Crowder played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Nader, Shamet, Johnson, and McGee played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

