Win probability changed during the game. · 13 November 2021
It was more exciting than 63% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CLE leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Schroder · Tatum · Williams · Smart · Langford
Closing lineup · CLE
Mobley · Allen · Osman · Rubio · Valentine
Dennis Schroder
35′ · -3
Jayson Tatum
35′ · +12
Robert Williams III
34′ · +13
Marcus Smart
34′ · +12
Grant Williams
27′ · -16
Romeo Langford
29′ · -7
Payton Pritchard
15′ · -7
Jabari Parker
14′ · -17
Aaron Nesmith
11′ · -6
Juancho Hernangomez
5′ · +9
Evan Mobley
40′ · +16
Darius Garland
36′ · -4
Jarrett Allen
28′ · -14
Dean Wade
22′ · -13
Isaac Okoro
18′ · -7
Cedi Osman
29′ · +2
Ricky Rubio
33′ · +13
Dylan Windler
12′ · +8
Denzel Valentine
23′ · +9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and CLE.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Tatum, Williams, Langford, Schroder, and Smart played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, Williams, Williams, Schroder, and Smart played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Langford, Williams, Nesmith, Pritchard, and Parker played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Allen, Garland, Wade, Okoro, and Mobley played 11.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Osman, Valentine, Windler, Mobley, and Rubio played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Osman, Valentine, Garland, Mobley, and Rubio played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Hernangomez, Tatum, Williams, Schroder, and Smart played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Tatum, Williams, Langford, Pritchard, and Smart played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Langford, Williams, Pritchard, Schroder, and Parker played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Tatum, Williams, Nesmith, Schroder, and Parker played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Osman, Valentine, Allen, Garland, and Rubio played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Allen, Garland, Wade, Mobley, and Rubio played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Allen, Garland, Mobley, and Rubio played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Osman, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Okoro played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Osman, Allen, Garland, Wade, and Mobley played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Garland, Wade, Okoro, and Rubio played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Valentine, Garland, Okoro, Mobley, and Rubio played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Garland, Okoro, Mobley, and Rubio played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

