Win probability changed during the game. · 22 November 2021
It was more exciting than 82% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Morant · Jackson · Bane · Williams · Clarke
Closing lineup · UTA
Mitchell · Gobert · Bogdanovic · Conley · Ingles
Ja Morant
37′ · +1
Jaren Jackson Jr.
34′ · -2
Desmond Bane
34′ · +15
Steven Adams
24′ · +4
Kyle Anderson
23′ · +2
Ziaire Williams
29′ · -8
Brandon Clarke
26′ · -1
John Konchar
21′ · -6
Tyus Jones
11′ · 0
Donovan Mitchell
36′ · -11
Rudy Gobert
33′ · +10
Bojan Bogdanovic
30′ · -4
Mike Conley
30′ · +13
Royce O'Neale
30′ · -4
Joe Ingles
24′ · -6
Hassan Whiteside
15′ · -11
Jordan Clarkson
23′ · +7
Rudy Gay
18′ · +3
Trent Forrest
2′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Adams, and Anderson played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Morant, Clarke, Bane, Williams, and Adams played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jackson, Morant, Clarke, Bane, and Williams played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Utah Jazz
O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Bogdanovic, and Gobert played 19.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gay, Conley, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Whiteside, Bogdanovic, and Ingles played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Jones, Jackson, Konchar, Bane, and Anderson played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Morant, Clarke, Konchar, Williams, and Adams played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Jackson, Konchar, Williams, and Anderson played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Konchar, and Williams played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jackson, Morant, Konchar, Williams, and Anderson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Morant, Clarke, Konchar, Bane, and Adams played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jackson, Morant, Clarke, Williams, and Anderson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Utah Jazz
Mitchell, Gay, Whiteside, Clarkson, and Ingles played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Whiteside, Bogdanovic, and Clarkson played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Forrest, Gay, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Gay, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

