Win probability changed during the game. · 26 November 2021
It was more exciting than 65% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Hart · Valanciunas · Graham · Temple
Closing lineup · UTA
Gobert · Mitchell · O'Neale · Conley · Bogdanovic
Brandon Ingram
38′ · -3
Josh Hart
37′ · 0
Herbert Jones
35′ · -2
Jonas Valanciunas
29′ · -9
Devonte' Graham
29′ · -1
Willy Hernangomez
19′ · +10
Garrett Temple
11′ · +2
Kira Lewis Jr.
10′ · 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
24′ · +6
Tomas Satoransky
9′ · +2
Rudy Gobert
37′ · -6
Donovan Mitchell
34′ · 0
Royce O'Neale
32′ · 0
Mike Conley
31′ · -11
Bojan Bogdanovic
31′ · +2
Joe Ingles
23′ · +7
Hassan Whiteside
11′ · +5
Jordan Clarkson
22′ · -9
Rudy Gay
16′ · -1
Trent Forrest
3′ · +8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Hart, Graham, Jones, and Valanciunas played 22.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Hart, Alexander-Walker, and Satoransky played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Alexander-Walker, Lewis, and Temple played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Utah Jazz
O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Bogdanovic, and Gobert played 19.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gay, Conley, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 11.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Whiteside, Bogdanovic, and Ingles played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Hernangomez, Alexander-Walker, Lewis, Jones, and Temple played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Alexander-Walker, Lewis, Jones, Temple, and Valanciunas played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Alexander-Walker, Temple, and Satoransky played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Graham, Alexander-Walker, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hernangomez, Hart, Graham, Alexander-Walker, and Jones played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hernangomez, Ingram, Hart, Graham, and Jones played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hernangomez, Hart, Lewis, Jones, and Temple played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Utah Jazz
O'Neale, Mitchell, Whiteside, Bogdanovic, and Clarkson played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Forrest, Gay, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Gobert, and Clarkson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Gay, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

