Win probability changed during the game. · 1 December 2021
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when CHA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHA
Rozier · Washington · Bridges · Hayward · McDaniels
Closing lineup · MIL
Holiday · Antetokounmpo · Middleton · Allen · Connaughton
LaMelo Ball
41′ · +2
Terry Rozier
38′ · +2
P.J. Washington
36′ · -5
Miles Bridges
35′ · -2
Gordon Hayward
32′ · +4
Kelly Oubre Jr.
31′ · -4
Jalen McDaniels
23′ · +5
Ish Smith
3′ · -5
Nick Richards
1′ · -7
Jrue Holiday
38′ · -5
Giannis Antetokounmpo
38′ · +4
Khris Middleton
33′ · +4
Grayson Allen
30′ · +1
Bobby Portis
26′ · -6
Pat Connaughton
27′ · +3
George Hill
28′ · +9
Rodney Hood
6′ · -9
DeMarcus Cousins
15′ · +9
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
0′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Charlotte Hornets
Rozier, Bridges, Washington, Ball, and Hayward played 16.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Rozier, Bridges, Washington, and Ball played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Bridges, McDaniels, Ball, and Hayward played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Allen, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 8.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Holiday, Cousins, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Charlotte Hornets
Oubre, Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, and Ball played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, and Hayward played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Rozier, Bridges, McDaniels, and Ball played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Washington, McDaniels, Ball, and Hayward played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Richards, Hayward, and Smith played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
Connaughton, Allen, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Allen, Hill, Cousins, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Middleton played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Allen, Hill, and Middleton played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Antetokounmpo, and Hood played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Allen, Hill, Middleton, and Hood played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Cousins played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Connaughton, Allen, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Portis, Allen, Hill, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Hood played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Allen, Hill, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

