SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 1 December 2021

CHA125–127MIL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsCHA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when CHA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CHA

Terry Rozier
P.J. Washington
Miles Bridges
Gordon Hayward
Jalen McDaniels

Rozier · Washington · Bridges · Hayward · McDaniels

Closing lineup · MIL

Jrue Holiday
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Khris Middleton
Grayson Allen
Pat Connaughton

Holiday · Antetokounmpo · Middleton · Allen · Connaughton

Q1Q2Q3Q4
CHA
LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

41′ · +2

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier

38′ · +2

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington

36′ · -5

Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges

35′ · -2

Gordon Hayward

Gordon Hayward

32′ · +4

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

31′ · -4

Jalen McDaniels

Jalen McDaniels

23′ · +5

Ish Smith

Ish Smith

3′ · -5

Nick Richards

Nick Richards

1′ · -7

MIL
Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

38′ · -5

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

38′ · +4

Khris Middleton

Khris Middleton

33′ · +4

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen

30′ · +1

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

26′ · -6

Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton

27′ · +3

George Hill

George Hill

28′ · +9

Rodney Hood

Rodney Hood

6′ · -9

DeMarcus Cousins

DeMarcus Cousins

15′ · +9

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

0′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Rozier, Bridges, Washington, Ball, and Hayward played 16.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Oubre, Rozier, Bridges, Washington, and Ball played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Oubre, Bridges, McDaniels, Ball, and Hayward played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Allen, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 8.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Allen, Holiday, Cousins, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Charlotte Hornets

  • Oubre, Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, and Ball played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Oubre, Rozier, Washington, McDaniels, and Hayward played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Oubre, Rozier, Bridges, McDaniels, and Ball played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Oubre, Washington, McDaniels, Ball, and Hayward played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Oubre, Bridges, Richards, Hayward, and Smith played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Connaughton, Allen, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Allen, Hill, Cousins, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Middleton played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Allen, Hill, and Middleton played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Antetokounmpo, and Hood played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Allen, Hill, Middleton, and Hood played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Cousins played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Connaughton, Allen, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Portis, Allen, Hill, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Hill, Holiday, and Hood played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Allen, Hill, Holiday, Cousins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.341
100% of capacity
Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Scoring
252
combined points
30.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

29 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 01:39.8
Giannis Antetokounmpo → P.J. Washington
Antetokounmpo (MIL) is late to the spot and continues moving toward Washington (CHA) when he makes body contact that affects Washington's SQBR.
Foul: Offensive · 01:44.3
Gordon Hayward → Jrue Holiday
Hayward (CHA) establishes a wide screening position and initiates foot-to-foot contact with Holiday (MIL) as Holiday goes over, affecting his ability to defend.