Win probability changed during the game. · 10 December 2021
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Davis · Hield · Mitchell · Bagley
Closing lineup · CHA
Martin · Hayward · Oubre · Bridges · Bouknight
Tyrese Haliburton
36′ · +9
De'Aaron Fox
34′ · -10
Harrison Barnes
26′ · -8
Terence Davis
22′ · +4
Alex Len
13′ · +5
Buddy Hield
31′ · -2
Tristan Thompson
21′ · -5
Davion Mitchell
26′ · -1
Marvin Bagley III
27′ · +6
Maurice Harkless
3′ · -3
Cody Martin
43′ · -3
Gordon Hayward
42′ · +1
Kelly Oubre Jr.
41′ · +1
Miles Bridges
40′ · +12
Vernon Carey Jr.
11′ · -18
JT Thor
28′ · +9
James Bouknight
26′ · +4
Arnoldas Kulboka
3′ · -8
Kai Jones
6′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Bagley, Haliburton, Mitchell, and Thompson played 13.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Fox, Davis, Haliburton, Barnes, and Len played 12.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Fox, Bagley, Davis, and Haliburton played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Thor, and Hayward played 15.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Carey, and Hayward played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Bouknight, and Hayward played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Fox, Bagley, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Fox, Bagley, Mitchell, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Fox, Mitchell, Thompson, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hield, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Davis, Mitchell, Barnes, and Harkless played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Davis, Mitchell, Thompson, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Martin, Bouknight, Thor, and Hayward played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Bouknight, and Thor played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Martin, Jones, and Bouknight played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Martin, Bouknight, Thor, and Hayward played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, Kulboka, Carey, Bouknight, and Hayward played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Bridges, Jones, Bouknight, and Hayward played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oubre, Carey, Bouknight, Thor, and Hayward played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

