Win probability changed during the game. · 11 December 2021
It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Wagner · Harris · Anthony · Carter · Ross
Closing lineup · LAC
Mann · Jackson · Morris · Bledsoe · Winslow
Franz Wagner
34′ · +3
Gary Harris
34′ · +2
Cole Anthony
34′ · +2
Wendell Carter Jr.
33′ · 0
Mo Bamba
29′ · +4
Terrence Ross
26′ · -3
Moritz Wagner
20′ · -10
Chuma Okeke
16′ · -4
R.J. Hampton
14′ · -4
Luke Kennard
36′ · -5
Terance Mann
35′ · -7
Reggie Jackson
32′ · 0
Ivica Zubac
28′ · -11
Marcus Morris Sr.
24′ · -4
Eric Bledsoe
25′ · +13
Brandon Boston
24′ · +6
Isaiah Hartenstein
20′ · +13
Justise Winslow
15′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Bamba, Carter, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 16.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Bamba, Wagner, Okeke, Hampton, and Ross played 7.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Anthony, Wagner, Ross, and Harris played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Kennard, Mann, Morris, and Jackson played 19.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Hartenstein, Mann, Boston, and Bledsoe played 8.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Winslow, Hartenstein, Boston, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Carter, Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bamba, Okeke, Hampton, Wagner, and Ross played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Wagner, Anthony, Ross, and Harris played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Anthony, Ross, and Harris played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Okeke, Hampton, Wagner, and Ross played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Kennard, Mann, Boston, and Bledsoe played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Boston, and Bledsoe played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Winslow, Zubac, Bledsoe, Morris, and Jackson played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Winslow, Hartenstein, Mann, Boston, and Jackson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Hartenstein, Bledsoe, Morris, and Jackson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

