SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 15 December 2021

LAL107–104DAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 31 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Russell Westbrook
Anthony Davis
Wayne Ellington
Austin Reaves

James · Westbrook · Davis · Ellington · Reaves

Closing lineup · DAL

Dorian Finney-Smith
Jalen Brunson
Reggie Bullock Jr.
Maxi Kleber
Tim Hardaway Jr.

Finney-Smith · Brunson · Bullock · Kleber · Hardaway

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

43′ · -6

Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

42′ · +8

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

39′ · +21

Wayne Ellington

Wayne Ellington

38′ · +10

Avery Bradley

Avery Bradley

23′ · +9

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

32′ · +10

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony

24′ · -16

Kent Bazemore

Kent Bazemore

15′ · -19

DeAndre Jordan

DeAndre Jordan

8′ · -2

DAL
Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

43′ · -12

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis

39′ · +2

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson

38′ · -8

Reggie Bullock Jr.

Reggie Bullock Jr.

20′ · -10

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

14′ · -11

Maxi Kleber

Maxi Kleber

33′ · +1

Moses Brown

Moses Brown

4′ · -4

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

40′ · +9

Trey Burke

Trey Burke

22′ · +8

Josh Green

Josh Green

10′ · +9

Frank Ntilikina

Frank Ntilikina

2′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Westbrook, Ellington, Bradley, Davis, and James played 13.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Reaves, Westbrook, Ellington, Davis, and James played 11.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Westbrook, Ellington, Bazemore, James, and Anthony played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 11.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Powell, and Porzingis played 10.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Reaves, Ellington, Bradley, Davis, and James played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Reaves, Westbrook, Jordan, Bazemore, and Anthony played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Reaves, Ellington, Davis, James, and Anthony played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Reaves, Westbrook, Davis, Bazemore, and Anthony played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Westbrook, Jordan, Bradley, James, and Anthony played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Reaves, Westbrook, Bradley, Davis, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Reaves, Davis, Bazemore, James, and Anthony played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Reaves, Westbrook, Jordan, Bradley, and Anthony played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Kleber, Green, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brown, Hardaway, and Burke played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ntilikina, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Burke played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Bullock, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Hardaway, and Powell played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kleber, Brunson, Green, Hardaway, and Burke played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kleber, Green, Bullock, Hardaway, and Burke played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Bullock, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.270
105.6% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Scoring
211
combined points
10.2 below the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

30 calls reviewed5 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:05.7
Russell Westbrook → Mavericks
Westbrook (LAL) splits his feet at the start of his dribble.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:11.5
LeBron James → Mavericks
James (LAL) gathers on his left foot and establishes his left as his pivot after lifting his right foot while stationary. He then lifts and re-plants his pivot foot before releasing his shot.
Foul: Shooting · 00:19.1
Russell Westbrook → Jalen Brunson
Westbrook (LAL) reaches across Brunson's (DAL) body and makes contact with his arm after he gathers the ball, which affects his driving shot attempt.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:25.3
Kristaps Porzingis → Lakers
Porzingis (DAL) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.