Win probability changed during the game. · 15 December 2021
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 31 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Westbrook · Davis · Ellington · Reaves
Closing lineup · DAL
Finney-Smith · Brunson · Bullock · Kleber · Hardaway
LeBron James
43′ · -6
Russell Westbrook
42′ · +8
Anthony Davis
39′ · +21
Wayne Ellington
38′ · +10
Avery Bradley
23′ · +9
Austin Reaves
32′ · +10
Carmelo Anthony
24′ · -16
Kent Bazemore
15′ · -19
DeAndre Jordan
8′ · -2
Dorian Finney-Smith
43′ · -12
Kristaps Porzingis
39′ · +2
Jalen Brunson
38′ · -8
Reggie Bullock Jr.
20′ · -10
Dwight Powell
14′ · -11
Maxi Kleber
33′ · +1
Moses Brown
4′ · -4
Tim Hardaway Jr.
40′ · +9
Trey Burke
22′ · +8
Josh Green
10′ · +9
Frank Ntilikina
2′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Westbrook, Ellington, Bradley, Davis, and James played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Reaves, Westbrook, Ellington, Davis, and James played 11.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Westbrook, Ellington, Bazemore, James, and Anthony played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 11.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Powell, and Porzingis played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Reaves, Ellington, Bradley, Davis, and James played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Reaves, Westbrook, Jordan, Bazemore, and Anthony played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Reaves, Ellington, Davis, James, and Anthony played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Reaves, Westbrook, Davis, Bazemore, and Anthony played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Westbrook, Jordan, Bradley, James, and Anthony played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Reaves, Westbrook, Bradley, Davis, and Anthony played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Reaves, Davis, Bazemore, James, and Anthony played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Reaves, Westbrook, Jordan, Bradley, and Anthony played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dallas Mavericks
Kleber, Green, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Hardaway, Burke, and Porzingis played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brown, Hardaway, and Burke played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ntilikina, Kleber, Green, Hardaway, and Burke played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Bullock, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Hardaway, and Powell played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kleber, Brunson, Green, Hardaway, and Burke played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Brunson, Bullock, Hardaway, and Porzingis played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kleber, Green, Bullock, Hardaway, and Burke played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Bullock, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

