SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 29 December 2021

DAL94–95SAC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAC winsDAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when DAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DAL

Frank Ntilikina
Jalen Brunson
Dwight Powell
Josh Green
Sterling Brown

Ntilikina · Brunson · Powell · Green · Brown

Closing lineup · SAC

Tyrese Haliburton
De'Aaron Fox
Harrison Barnes
Chimezie Metu
Buddy Hield

Haliburton · Fox · Barnes · Metu · Hield

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DAL
Frank Ntilikina

Frank Ntilikina

38′ · +6

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson

36′ · 0

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis

35′ · +2

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

28′ · -11

Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

27′ · +1

Josh Green

Josh Green

28′ · -14

Moses Brown

Moses Brown

10′ · +9

Isaiah Thomas

Isaiah Thomas

13′ · -1

Sterling Brown

Sterling Brown

18′ · +3

Theo Pinson

Theo Pinson

7′ · +2

SAC
Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

36′ · -5

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

34′ · +12

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

34′ · +7

Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley III

28′ · +11

Richaun Holmes

Richaun Holmes

26′ · -9

Chimezie Metu

Chimezie Metu

20′ · -10

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

23′ · -4

Damian Jones

Damian Jones

22′ · +7

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

19′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and SAC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Powell, and Porzingis played 13.2 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, Powell, and Porzingis played 5.9 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, Pinson, and Porzingis played 4.6 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Sacramento Kings

  • Holmes, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 14.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Holmes, Hield, Metu, Haliburton, and Mitchell played 9.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Jones, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Dallas Mavericks

  • Brown, Brunson, Pinson, Green, and Porzingis played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Brown, Brown, Green, Thomas, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, and Powell played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Green, Thomas, Powell, and Porzingis played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Ntilikina, Brown, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Green, Thomas, and Powell played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Brown, Brunson, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, and Porzingis played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, and Porzingis played 1.1 minutes together.

Sacramento Kings

  • Hield, Jones, Fox, Metu, and Barnes played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hield, Jones, Metu, Haliburton, and Mitchell played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Jones, Fox, Bagley, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Hield, Jones, Fox, Bagley, and Barnes played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holmes, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.071
91.3% of capacity
Golden 1 Center · Sacramento
Scoring
189
combined points
32.2 below the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:07.8
Richaun Holmes → Mavericks
Holmes (SAC) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.