Win probability changed during the game. · 29 December 2021
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when DAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DAL
Ntilikina · Brunson · Powell · Green · Brown
Closing lineup · SAC
Haliburton · Fox · Barnes · Metu · Hield
Frank Ntilikina
38′ · +6
Jalen Brunson
36′ · 0
Kristaps Porzingis
35′ · +2
Dwight Powell
28′ · -11
Dorian Finney-Smith
27′ · +1
Josh Green
28′ · -14
Moses Brown
10′ · +9
Isaiah Thomas
13′ · -1
Sterling Brown
18′ · +3
Theo Pinson
7′ · +2
Tyrese Haliburton
36′ · -5
De'Aaron Fox
34′ · +12
Harrison Barnes
34′ · +7
Marvin Bagley III
28′ · +11
Richaun Holmes
26′ · -9
Chimezie Metu
20′ · -10
Buddy Hield
23′ · -4
Damian Jones
22′ · +7
Davion Mitchell
19′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Powell, and Porzingis played 13.2 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, Powell, and Porzingis played 5.9 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, Pinson, and Porzingis played 4.6 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 14.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Holmes, Hield, Metu, Haliburton, and Mitchell played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jones, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Dallas Mavericks
Brown, Brunson, Pinson, Green, and Porzingis played 2.9 minutes together.
Brown, Brown, Green, Thomas, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, and Powell played 2.5 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Green, Thomas, Powell, and Porzingis played 2.5 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 2.2 minutes together.
Ntilikina, Brown, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 2.2 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Green, Thomas, and Powell played 1.9 minutes together.
Brown, Brunson, Brown, Green, and Thomas played 1.7 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brunson, Green, and Porzingis played 1.6 minutes together.
Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Brown, Brunson, and Porzingis played 1.1 minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Jones, Fox, Metu, and Barnes played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Jones, Metu, Haliburton, and Mitchell played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Jones, Fox, Bagley, Mitchell, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Hield, Jones, Fox, Bagley, and Barnes played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Fox, Metu, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

