Win probability changed during the game. · 19 January 2022
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAC
Jackson · Zubac · Coffey · Kennard · Boston
Closing lineup · DEN
Morris · Gordon · Barton · Jokic · Green
Terance Mann
39′ · -10
Reggie Jackson
38′ · -2
Ivica Zubac
37′ · -17
Amir Coffey
31′ · -20
Serge Ibaka
14′ · -8
Luke Kennard
27′ · +3
Eric Bledsoe
25′ · +10
Brandon Boston
27′ · +16
Justise Winslow
14′ · +6
Isaiah Hartenstein
13′ · +12
Monte Morris
45′ · +14
Aaron Gordon
44′ · +21
Will Barton
41′ · +6
Nikola Jokic
41′ · +15
Jeff Green
33′ · +8
Bones Hyland
15′ · -6
Zeke Nnaji
13′ · -16
Facundo Campazzo
9′ · -12
Austin Rivers
7′ · -14
Davon Reed
18′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAC and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Ibaka, and Jackson played 11.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Zubac, Kennard, Mann, Boston, and Jackson played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Boston, and Bledsoe played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Morris, Green, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 24.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 22 points.
Morris, Reed, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Morris, Reed, Nnaji, Hyland, and Gordon played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
LA Clippers
Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, Mann, and Jackson played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Zubac, Mann, Boston, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Boston, and Jackson played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, Mann, and Bledsoe played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Hartenstein, Boston, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Coffey, and Bledsoe played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Coffey, Mann, Ibaka, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kennard, Hartenstein, Mann, Boston, and Bledsoe played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, and Bledsoe played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Winslow, Boston, Ibaka, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Denver Nuggets
Morris, Hyland, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Nnaji, Campazzo, Hyland, Green, and Rivers played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Nnaji, Campazzo, Green, Rivers, and Barton played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Morris, Reed, Hyland, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Reed, Campazzo, Green, Barton, and Jokic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

