SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 January 2022

LAC128–130DEN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DEN winsLAC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAC

Reggie Jackson
Ivica Zubac
Amir Coffey
Luke Kennard
Brandon Boston

Jackson · Zubac · Coffey · Kennard · Boston

Closing lineup · DEN

Monte Morris
Aaron Gordon
Will Barton
Nikola Jokic
Jeff Green

Morris · Gordon · Barton · Jokic · Green

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
LAC
Terance Mann

Terance Mann

39′ · -10

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson

38′ · -2

Ivica Zubac

Ivica Zubac

37′ · -17

Amir Coffey

Amir Coffey

31′ · -20

Serge Ibaka

Serge Ibaka

14′ · -8

Luke Kennard

Luke Kennard

27′ · +3

Eric Bledsoe

Eric Bledsoe

25′ · +10

Brandon Boston

Brandon Boston

27′ · +16

Justise Winslow

Justise Winslow

14′ · +6

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein

13′ · +12

DEN
Monte Morris

Monte Morris

45′ · +14

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

44′ · +21

Will Barton

Will Barton

41′ · +6

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

41′ · +15

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

33′ · +8

Bones Hyland

Bones Hyland

15′ · -6

Zeke Nnaji

Zeke Nnaji

13′ · -16

Facundo Campazzo

Facundo Campazzo

9′ · -12

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers

7′ · -14

Davon Reed

Davon Reed

18′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAC and DEN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

LA Clippers

  • Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Ibaka, and Jackson played 11.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

  • Zubac, Kennard, Mann, Boston, and Jackson played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Boston, and Bledsoe played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Denver Nuggets

  • Morris, Green, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 24.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 22 points.

  • Morris, Reed, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Morris, Reed, Nnaji, Hyland, and Gordon played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

LA Clippers

  • Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, Mann, and Jackson played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Zubac, Mann, Boston, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Boston, and Jackson played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, Mann, and Bledsoe played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Winslow, Hartenstein, Boston, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Coffey, and Bledsoe played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Coffey, Mann, Ibaka, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Kennard, Hartenstein, Mann, Boston, and Bledsoe played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Winslow, Zubac, Kennard, Coffey, and Bledsoe played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Winslow, Boston, Ibaka, Bledsoe, and Jackson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Denver Nuggets

  • Morris, Hyland, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Nnaji, Campazzo, Hyland, Green, and Rivers played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nnaji, Campazzo, Green, Rivers, and Barton played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Morris, Reed, Hyland, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Reed, Campazzo, Green, Barton, and Jokic played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
14.547
74.5% of capacity
Ball Arena · Denver
Scoring
258
combined points
36.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

26 calls reviewed5 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:34.6
Amir Coffey → Nikola Jokic
Coffey (LAC) makes clean contact with the ball during Jokic's (DEN) driving shot attempt. However, Jackson (LAC) reaches in and makes contact with Jokic's (DEN) arm. The foul should've been assessed to Jackson.
Foul: Personal · 00:39.3
Ivica Zubac → Nikola Jokic
Zubac (LAC) steps up and into Jokic's (DEN) body off-ball, affecting his FOM and impeding his ability to cut.
Foul: Offensive · 00:47.8
Reggie Jackson → Jeff Green
Green (DEN) is established in Jackson's (LAC) path prior to his upward motion and absorbs the body contact in the chest as Jackson dislodges him.
Turnover: Offensive Goaltending · 01:12.8
Nikola Jokic → Clippers
Jokic (DEN) touches the ball while it is in the imaginary cylinder above the rim.