Win probability changed during the game. · 25 January 2022
It was more exciting than 31% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when LAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAC
Coffey · Mann · Kennard · Winslow · Scrubb
Closing lineup · WAS
Beal · Kuzma · Dinwiddie · Caldwell-Pope · Harrell
Amir Coffey
37′ · +15
Terance Mann
32′ · -1
Reggie Jackson
16′ · -29
Ivica Zubac
12′ · -19
Nicolas Batum
8′ · -22
Luke Kennard
30′ · +26
Isaiah Hartenstein
26′ · +23
Justise Winslow
23′ · +9
Eric Bledsoe
15′ · +5
Brandon Boston
20′ · -6
Serge Ibaka
4′ · -12
Jay Scrubb
17′ · +16
Bradley Beal
40′ · +1
Kyle Kuzma
35′ · +3
Spencer Dinwiddie
34′ · -5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
29′ · +10
Daniel Gafford
12′ · +6
Deni Avdija
21′ · -4
Thomas Bryant
15′ · 0
Corey Kispert
20′ · -4
Rui Hachimura
13′ · -4
Montrezl Harrell
20′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAC and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
LA Clippers
Kennard, Hartenstein, Coffey, Mann, and Bledsoe played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Batum, and Jackson played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.
Kennard, Hartenstein, Coffey, Mann, and Scrubb played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Washington Wizards
Kuzma, Gafford, Beal, Caldwell-Pope, and Dinwiddie played 12.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Beal, Caldwell-Pope, and Dinwiddie played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Bryant, Hachimura, Avdija, Kispert, and Dinwiddie played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
LA Clippers
Zubac, Coffey, Mann, Scrubb, and Jackson played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Kennard, Coffey, Mann, and Boston played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Boston, and Bledsoe played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Coffey, and Bledsoe played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Winslow, Hartenstein, Coffey, Scrubb, and Boston played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Kennard, Hartenstein, Scrubb, and Boston played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Winslow, Mann, Boston, Ibaka, and Jackson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Winslow, Kennard, Coffey, Scrubb, and Boston played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Washington Wizards
Kuzma, Bryant, Avdija, Beal, and Caldwell-Pope played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Kispert, Beal, and Caldwell-Pope played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Bryant, Hachimura, Avdija, Kispert, and Beal played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Kispert, Beal, and Dinwiddie played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Harrell, Hachimura, Avdija, Kispert, and Dinwiddie played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Avdija, Beal, and Dinwiddie played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Harrell, Hachimura, Avdija, Beal, and Dinwiddie played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

