SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 16 February 2022

DEN117–116GSW
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 67% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsDEN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when DEN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DEN

Nikola Jokic
Monte Morris
Aaron Gordon
Bryn Forbes
Austin Rivers

Jokic · Morris · Gordon · Forbes · Rivers

Closing lineup · GSW

Stephen Curry
Andrew Wiggins
Klay Thompson
Kevon Looney
Otto Porter Jr.

Curry · Wiggins · Thompson · Looney · Porter

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DEN
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

34′ · +6

Monte Morris

Monte Morris

31′ · +5

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

30′ · +2

Will Barton

Will Barton

21′ · -11

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

18′ · -10

Bryn Forbes

Bryn Forbes

30′ · +8

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers

28′ · +10

Bones Hyland

Bones Hyland

17′ · -4

JaMychal Green

JaMychal Green

18′ · -2

DeMarcus Cousins

DeMarcus Cousins

13′ · -2

GSW
Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

39′ · -2

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

36′ · -1

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

31′ · 0

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

27′ · -4

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

25′ · +13

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

22′ · -2

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

21′ · -1

Nemanja Bjelica

Nemanja Bjelica

16′ · -4

Otto Porter Jr.

Otto Porter Jr.

23′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Morris, Green, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 18.2 minutes together.

  • Forbes, Hyland, Cousins, Rivers, and Green played 12.5 minutes together.

  • Forbes, Morris, Rivers, Gordon, and Jokic played 8.3 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Denver Nuggets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 16.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Looney, Curry, Thompson, Porter, and Wiggins played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Porter played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Denver Nuggets

  • Forbes, Hyland, Rivers, Green, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Forbes, Morris, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Forbes, Morris, Rivers, Green, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Forbes, Hyland, Rivers, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Porter played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Wiggins played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Porter, and Wiggins played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
233
combined points
11.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

12 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors