Win probability changed during the game. · 16 February 2022
It was more exciting than 67% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Morris · Gordon · Forbes · Rivers
Closing lineup · GSW
Curry · Wiggins · Thompson · Looney · Porter
Nikola Jokic
34′ · +6
Monte Morris
31′ · +5
Aaron Gordon
30′ · +2
Will Barton
21′ · -11
Jeff Green
18′ · -10
Bryn Forbes
30′ · +8
Austin Rivers
28′ · +10
Bones Hyland
17′ · -4
JaMychal Green
18′ · -2
DeMarcus Cousins
13′ · -2
Stephen Curry
39′ · -2
Andrew Wiggins
36′ · -1
Klay Thompson
31′ · 0
Kevon Looney
27′ · -4
Gary Payton II
25′ · +13
Jordan Poole
22′ · -2
Jonathan Kuminga
21′ · -1
Nemanja Bjelica
16′ · -4
Otto Porter Jr.
23′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Morris, Green, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 18.2 minutes together.
Forbes, Hyland, Cousins, Rivers, and Green played 12.5 minutes together.
Forbes, Morris, Rivers, Gordon, and Jokic played 8.3 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Denver Nuggets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 16.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Looney, Curry, Thompson, Porter, and Wiggins played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Porter played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Forbes, Hyland, Rivers, Green, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.
Forbes, Morris, Barton, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.
Forbes, Morris, Rivers, Green, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Forbes, Hyland, Rivers, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Porter played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Bjelica, and Wiggins played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Porter, and Wiggins played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Payton, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Wiggins played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Kuminga, Bjelica, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

