Win probability changed during the game. · 16 March 2022
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Bazley · Wiggins · Pokusevski · Waters
Closing lineup · SAS
Murray · Johnson · Vassell · Poeltl · Primo
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
35′ · -8
Darius Bazley
33′ · -7
Tre Mann
29′ · -6
Aaron Wiggins
26′ · -19
Isaiah Roby
14′ · -14
Aleksej Pokusevski
27′ · +8
Theo Maledon
25′ · +14
Vit Krejci
20′ · +16
Olivier Sarr
18′ · +5
Lindy Waters III
12′ · +1
Dejounte Murray
36′ · +19
Keldon Johnson
35′ · +12
Devin Vassell
32′ · +13
Jakob Poeltl
29′ · +5
Josh Richardson
28′ · -4
Zach Collins
15′ · -1
Lonnie Walker IV
22′ · +1
Tre Jones
18′ · -11
Joshua Primo
20′ · -19
Jock Landale
4′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Roby, Mann, and Wiggins played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Maledon, Pokusevski, and Krejci played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Maledon, Waters, Mann, Wiggins, and Sarr played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Richardson, Murray, Poeltl, Johnson, and Vassell played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Richardson, Murray, Poeltl, Johnson, and Jones played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Collins, Walker, Johnson, Jones, and Primo played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Maledon, Krejci, Mann, Wiggins, and Sarr played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Pokusevski, Waters, and Sarr played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Pokusevski, Mann, and Wiggins played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Maledon, Pokusevski, Krejci, Mann, and Wiggins played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Pokusevski, Mann, and Sarr played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Roby, Maledon, and Pokusevski played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Pokusevski, Waters, and Wiggins played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Roby, Pokusevski, and Krejci played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Maledon, Krejci, Waters, Mann, and Sarr played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Maledon, Pokusevski, Krejci, and Sarr played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
San Antonio Spurs
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Johnson, and Primo played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Collins, Walker, Johnson, and Vassell played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Richardson, Murray, Collins, Johnson, and Vassell played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Richardson, Murray, Poeltl, Vassell, and Primo played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Richardson, Poeltl, Johnson, Vassell, and Jones played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Richardson, Murray, Poeltl, Walker, and Vassell played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Walker, Landale, Vassell, and Primo played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Collins, Walker, Vassell, and Primo played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Walker, Landale, Vassell, Jones, and Primo played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Vassell, and Jones played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Richardson, Poeltl, Johnson, Jones, and Primo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

