Win probability changed during the game. · 23 March 2022
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Barnes · Jones · Metu · Len · Queta
Closing lineup · IND
Haliburton · Hield · Brissett · Bitadze · Taylor
Davion Mitchell
38′ · -10
Harrison Barnes
33′ · -4
Damian Jones
30′ · -16
Trey Lyles
22′ · -5
Justin Holiday
22′ · -6
Donte DiVincenzo
31′ · +13
Chimezie Metu
26′ · +6
Jeremy Lamb
21′ · +10
Alex Len
18′ · +17
Neemias Queta
0′ · 0
Tyrese Haliburton
37′ · +10
Buddy Hield
37′ · -1
Oshae Brissett
33′ · +5
Justin Anderson
31′ · +7
Goga Bitadze
29′ · -7
Terry Taylor
29′ · 0
Isaiah Jackson
7′ · +5
Duane Washington Jr.
21′ · -13
Lance Stephenson
15′ · -11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Jones, Mitchell, Barnes, and Holiday played 14.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Lyles, Jones, DiVincenzo, Mitchell, and Barnes played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Metu, Mitchell, Lamb, and Len played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Indiana Pacers
Anderson, Hield, Bitadze, Brissett, and Haliburton played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Anderson, Hield, Brissett, Haliburton, and Taylor played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Hield, Bitadze, Washington, Taylor, and Stephenson played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
DiVincenzo, Metu, Barnes, Lamb, and Len played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Metu, Lamb, Holiday, and Len played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, DiVincenzo, Metu, Mitchell, and Barnes played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, DiVincenzo, Metu, Mitchell, and Lamb played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Indiana Pacers
Anderson, Bitadze, Haliburton, Washington, and Taylor played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Anderson, Hield, Bitadze, Brissett, and Stephenson played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hield, Bitadze, Brissett, Haliburton, and Washington played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Anderson, Brissett, Haliburton, Washington, and Taylor played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Haliburton, Jackson, Washington, Taylor, and Stephenson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Haliburton, Jackson, Washington, and Taylor played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Brissett, Haliburton, Jackson, and Taylor played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Anderson, Bitadze, Brissett, Haliburton, and Stephenson played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hield, Jackson, Washington, Taylor, and Stephenson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

