Win probability changed during the game. · 21 October 2022
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Ayton · Bridges · Landale · Biyombo
Closing lineup · POR
Lillard · Hart · Grant · Nurkic · Eubanks
Devin Booker
44′ · -2
Deandre Ayton
38′ · +1
Mikal Bridges
38′ · +6
Chris Paul
36′ · 0
Cameron Johnson
23′ · -5
Cameron Payne
17′ · -2
Torrey Craig
11′ · -3
Jock Landale
14′ · -3
Damion Lee
31′ · +3
Josh Okogie
14′ · -5
Bismack Biyombo
0′ · 0
Damian Lillard
43′ · -2
Anfernee Simons
42′ · +2
Josh Hart
41′ · -3
Jerami Grant
40′ · -4
Jusuf Nurkic
35′ · 0
Justise Winslow
24′ · +1
Drew Eubanks
16′ · +5
Shaedon Sharpe
12′ · +7
Nassir Little
13′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 13.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Ayton, and Johnson played 9.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Booker, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Portland Trail Blazers
Hart, Simons, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 27.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Little, and Sharpe played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Winslow, Hart, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Lee, Okogie, Landale, and Johnson played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Payne, Lee, Bridges, and Ayton played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Payne, Lee, Okogie, Landale, and Johnson played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Booker, Okogie, Ayton, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Booker, Payne, Lee, Craig, and Landale played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Payne, Lee, Landale, and Johnson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Landale, and Johnson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Booker, Lee, Okogie, and Ayton played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Payne, Okogie, Ayton, and Johnson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Landale played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Payne, Lee, Bridges, Okogie, and Landale played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Payne, Craig, Bridges, and Ayton played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Nurkic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Lillard played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Winslow, Hart, Simons, Eubanks, and Lillard played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hart, Simons, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Hart, Simons, Grant, and Nurkic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Hart, Little, Lillard, and Grant played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

