Win probability changed during the game. · 23 October 2022
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Hart · Grant · Lillard · Winslow · Little
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Davis · Walker · Beverley · Reaves
Josh Hart
36′ · -4
Anfernee Simons
36′ · +2
Jerami Grant
35′ · 0
Damian Lillard
34′ · +2
Jusuf Nurkic
30′ · +3
Justise Winslow
25′ · +2
Shaedon Sharpe
16′ · +8
Drew Eubanks
13′ · -3
Nassir Little
14′ · 0
LeBron James
38′ · +2
Anthony Davis
36′ · +3
Lonnie Walker IV
32′ · +5
Patrick Beverley
30′ · +7
Russell Westbrook
28′ · -4
Austin Reaves
19′ · -6
Troy Brown Jr.
22′ · 0
Juan Toscano-Anderson
20′ · -5
Kendrick Nunn
10′ · -7
Damian Jones
6′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Hart, Simons, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 19.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Hart, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Little, and Sharpe played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Walker, Westbrook, Beverley, Davis, and James played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Walker, Beverley, Davis, and James played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and Davis played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Nurkic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Sharpe, and Lillard played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Winslow, Hart, Simons, Little, and Sharpe played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hart, Simons, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Westbrook, Davis, and James played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Brown, Reaves, Beverley, and James played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and James played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and James played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Beverley, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Westbrook, Beverley, and Davis played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and Davis played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, Westbrook, and Davis played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

