SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 23 October 2022

POR106–104LAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAL winsPOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when POR does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · POR

Josh Hart
Jerami Grant
Damian Lillard
Justise Winslow
Nassir Little

Hart · Grant · Lillard · Winslow · Little

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Anthony Davis
Lonnie Walker IV
Patrick Beverley
Austin Reaves

James · Davis · Walker · Beverley · Reaves

Q1Q2Q3Q4
POR
Josh Hart

Josh Hart

36′ · -4

Anfernee Simons

Anfernee Simons

36′ · +2

Jerami Grant

Jerami Grant

35′ · 0

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

34′ · +2

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

30′ · +3

Justise Winslow

Justise Winslow

25′ · +2

Shaedon Sharpe

Shaedon Sharpe

16′ · +8

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

13′ · -3

Nassir Little

Nassir Little

14′ · 0

LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

38′ · +2

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

36′ · +3

Lonnie Walker IV

Lonnie Walker IV

32′ · +5

Patrick Beverley

Patrick Beverley

30′ · +7

Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

28′ · -4

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

19′ · -6

Troy Brown Jr.

Troy Brown Jr.

22′ · 0

Juan Toscano-Anderson

Juan Toscano-Anderson

20′ · -5

Kendrick Nunn

Kendrick Nunn

10′ · -7

Damian Jones

Damian Jones

6′ · -5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and LAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Hart, Simons, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 19.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Winslow, Hart, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Little, and Sharpe played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Walker, Westbrook, Beverley, Davis, and James played 15.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Walker, Beverley, Davis, and James played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brown, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and Davis played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Nurkic played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Sharpe, and Lillard played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Winslow, Hart, Simons, Little, and Sharpe played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Hart, Simons, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Simons, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Westbrook, Davis, and James played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Brown, Reaves, Beverley, and James played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and James played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Nunn, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, and James played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Beverley, and James played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Walker, Toscano-Anderson, Westbrook, Beverley, and Davis played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, and Davis played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Brown, Toscano-Anderson, Reaves, Westbrook, and Davis played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Walker, Reaves, Westbrook, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.997
100% of capacity
Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles
Scoring
210
combined points
19.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

31 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:11
LeBron James → Trail Blazers
James (LAL) slides his pivot foot at the start of his dribble.
Turnover: 8 Second Violation · 00:16.6
Damian Lillard → Lakers
Lillard (POR) does not get the ball across the mid-court line within 8 seconds. A 8 second violation should've been whistled.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:53.5
Patrick Beverley → Damian Lillard
Beverley (LAL) grabs Lillard's (POR) arm underneath the basket and the contact affects his ability to secure the loose ball.
Foul: Personal · 01:21
Patrick Beverley → Damian Lillard
Beverley (LAL) makes contact to Lillard's (POR) lower body during his drive and the contact affects his SQBR.