Win probability changed during the game. · 23 October 2022
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Markkanen · Olynyk · Clarkson · Conley · Sexton
Closing lineup · NOP
McCollum · Murphy · Nance · Alvarado · Marshall
Lauri Markkanen
39′ · +6
Kelly Olynyk
37′ · -8
Jordan Clarkson
37′ · +4
Mike Conley
36′ · -13
Jarred Vanderbilt
28′ · -4
Walker Kessler
22′ · +9
Collin Sexton
19′ · +11
Malik Beasley
21′ · +2
Rudy Gay
16′ · +6
Talen Horton-Tucker
9′ · -8
Simone Fontecchio
0′ · 0
CJ McCollum
41′ · +9
Herbert Jones
35′ · -1
Zion Williamson
30′ · -7
Jonas Valanciunas
24′ · -7
Brandon Ingram
11′ · 0
Trey Murphy III
40′ · +14
Larry Nance Jr.
29′ · +6
Jose Alvarado
24′ · -5
Naji Marshall
14′ · -7
Devonte' Graham
15′ · +1
Jaxson Hayes
3′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 17.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Gay played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Nance, Jones, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Williamson, Jones, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Jones, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Kessler, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, Gay, and Conley played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, and Gay played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Olynyk played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, Conley, and Olynyk played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
New Orleans Pelicans
Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and McCollum played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Nance, Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Graham, Williamson, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Nance, Marshall, Jones, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Marshall, Jones, Alvarado, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Graham, Jones, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

