SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 23 October 2022

UTA122–121NOP
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ NOP winsUTA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when UTA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · UTA

Lauri Markkanen
Kelly Olynyk
Jordan Clarkson
Mike Conley
Collin Sexton

Markkanen · Olynyk · Clarkson · Conley · Sexton

Closing lineup · NOP

CJ McCollum
Trey Murphy III
Larry Nance Jr.
Jose Alvarado
Naji Marshall

McCollum · Murphy · Nance · Alvarado · Marshall

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
UTA
Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen

39′ · +6

Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk

37′ · -8

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson

37′ · +4

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

36′ · -13

Jarred Vanderbilt

Jarred Vanderbilt

28′ · -4

Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler

22′ · +9

Collin Sexton

Collin Sexton

19′ · +11

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

21′ · +2

Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay

16′ · +6

Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen Horton-Tucker

9′ · -8

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

0′ · 0

NOP
CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum

41′ · +9

Herbert Jones

Herbert Jones

35′ · -1

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson

30′ · -7

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

24′ · -7

Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram

11′ · 0

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

40′ · +14

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr.

29′ · +6

Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado

24′ · -5

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

14′ · -7

Devonte' Graham

Devonte' Graham

15′ · +1

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

3′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and NOP.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Utah Jazz

  • Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 17.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Gay played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Nance, Jones, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 10.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • Williamson, Jones, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 8.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Ingram, Williamson, Jones, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Utah Jazz

  • Markkanen, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Beasley, Kessler, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, Gay, and Conley played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, and Gay played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Olynyk played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, Conley, and Olynyk played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Markkanen, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and McCollum played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Nance, Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Graham, Williamson, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nance, Marshall, Jones, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Marshall, Jones, Alvarado, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Graham, Jones, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.665
110.7% of capacity
Smoothie King Center · New Orleans
Scoring
243
combined points
13.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors