Win probability changed during the game. · 31 October 2022
It was more exciting than 82% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Green · Porter · Gordon · Smith · Martin
Closing lineup · LAC
George · Morris · Batum · Mann · Coffey
Jalen Green
36′ · +1
Kevin Porter Jr.
34′ · -14
Eric Gordon
30′ · -10
Alperen Sengun
30′ · -8
Jabari Smith Jr.
30′ · -2
KJ Martin
29′ · +3
Garrison Mathews
15′ · -2
Tari Eason
12′ · -3
Usman Garuba
10′ · +4
Daishen Nix
9′ · +14
Josh Christopher
4′ · +7
Paul George
38′ · +16
Marcus Morris Sr.
37′ · +7
Luke Kennard
34′ · +3
Ivica Zubac
32′ · -2
Reggie Jackson
30′ · 0
Norman Powell
21′ · +6
Nicolas Batum
16′ · -1
Terance Mann
15′ · -10
Amir Coffey
12′ · -8
Brandon Boston
5′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Porter, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Gordon played 16.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Porter, Green, Martin, Sengun, and Gordon played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Porter, Mathews, Martin, Sengun, and Eason played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Kennard, George, Morris, and Jackson played 23.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Powell, Zubac, Kennard, George, and Morris played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Powell, Coffey, Mann, Boston, and Batum played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Porter, Green, Martin, Smith, and Gordon played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Mathews, Martin, Garuba, Eason, and Gordon played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Porter, Green, Martin, Sengun, and Smith played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mathews, Nix, Martin, Garuba, and Eason played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Green, Nix, Martin, Christopher, and Smith played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Mathews, Green, Nix, Garuba, and Smith played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
LA Clippers
Coffey, Mann, Batum, George, and Jackson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Powell, Kennard, Mann, Batum, and Morris played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Powell, Kennard, Batum, George, and Morris played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Powell, Mann, Batum, George, and Morris played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Powell, Zubac, Coffey, Morris, and Jackson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Powell, Coffey, Mann, Batum, and George played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
