Win probability changed during the game. · 7 November 2022
It was more exciting than 63% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Hart · Lillard · Grant · Simons · Winslow
Closing lineup · MIA
Lowry · Butler · Adebayo · Strus · Robinson
Josh Hart
37′ · +13
Damian Lillard
35′ · +6
Jerami Grant
35′ · +3
Anfernee Simons
32′ · -1
Jusuf Nurkic
29′ · -11
Justise Winslow
29′ · +15
Drew Eubanks
13′ · +1
Nassir Little
7′ · -7
Trendon Watford
13′ · 0
Shaedon Sharpe
12′ · -4
Kyle Lowry
35′ · -4
Caleb Martin
35′ · -4
Jimmy Butler III
33′ · -3
Bam Adebayo
33′ · +2
Max Strus
25′ · +2
Gabe Vincent
35′ · -5
Duncan Robinson
29′ · +2
Dewayne Dedmon
15′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Hart, Simons, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Winslow, Hart, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Winslow, Simons, Watford, Sharpe, and Nurkic played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Lowry, and Butler played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Robinson, Vincent, Butler, and Dedmon played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Strus, and Lowry played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Winslow, Hart, Simons, Lillard, and Grant played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Winslow, Hart, Simons, Eubanks, and Watford played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hart, Sharpe, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Eubanks, Little, Watford, and Sharpe played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Little, and Grant played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, Eubanks, Watford, Sharpe, and Lillard played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Winslow, Hart, Little, Lillard, and Grant played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Lowry, and Butler played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Lowry, and Butler played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Lowry played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Robinson, Vincent, Lowry, and Dedmon played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Vincent, and Butler played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

