Win probability changed during the game. · 19 November 2022
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on TOR's side, but ATL won 124-122. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when TOR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · TOR
Barnes · VanVleet · Anunoby · Young · Koloko
Closing lineup · ATL
Hunter · Young · Murray · Capela · Griffin
Scottie Barnes
46′ · -1
Fred VanVleet
44′ · -16
OG Anunoby
42′ · -11
Thaddeus Young
35′ · -6
Juancho Hernangomez
32′ · 0
Christian Koloko
30′ · +5
Malachi Flynn
28′ · +9
Jeff Dowtin Jr.
4′ · +9
Khem Birch
4′ · +1
De'Andre Hunter
45′ · +3
Trae Young
42′ · +11
Dejounte Murray
40′ · +13
John Collins
34′ · +10
Clint Capela
34′ · +10
Onyeka Okongwu
19′ · -8
Aaron Holiday
8′ · -9
AJ Griffin
30′ · -6
Jalen Johnson
5′ · -8
Justin Holiday
7′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Toronto Raptors
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Anunoby, Barnes, and Young played 17.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
VanVleet, Anunoby, Barnes, Koloko, and Young played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Anunoby, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Capela played 14.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Murray, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Capela played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Toronto Raptors
Hernangomez, Anunoby, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Anunoby, Flynn, Koloko, and Young played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Young, and Birch played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Anunoby, Flynn, Dowtin, Barnes, and Koloko played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Young played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Flynn, Dowtin, Barnes, Koloko, and Young played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Hunter, Griffin, Holiday, and Capela played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Collins, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Collins, Okongwu, Griffin, and Holiday played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holiday, Young, Johnson, Griffin, and Capela played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Capela played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Collins, Holiday, Hunter, and Okongwu played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Holiday, Okongwu, Johnson, and Griffin played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Collins, Holiday, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

