SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 November 2022

TOR122–124ATL
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ATL winsTOR wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on TOR's side, but ATL won 124-122. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when TOR does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · TOR

Scottie Barnes
Fred VanVleet
OG Anunoby
Thaddeus Young
Christian Koloko

Barnes · VanVleet · Anunoby · Young · Koloko

Closing lineup · ATL

De'Andre Hunter
Trae Young
Dejounte Murray
Clint Capela
AJ Griffin

Hunter · Young · Murray · Capela · Griffin

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
TOR
Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes

46′ · -1

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

44′ · -16

OG Anunoby

OG Anunoby

42′ · -11

Thaddeus Young

Thaddeus Young

35′ · -6

Juancho Hernangomez

Juancho Hernangomez

32′ · 0

Christian Koloko

Christian Koloko

30′ · +5

Malachi Flynn

Malachi Flynn

28′ · +9

Jeff Dowtin Jr.

Jeff Dowtin Jr.

4′ · +9

Khem Birch

Khem Birch

4′ · +1

ATL
De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

45′ · +3

Trae Young

Trae Young

42′ · +11

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

40′ · +13

John Collins

John Collins

34′ · +10

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

34′ · +10

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

19′ · -8

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

8′ · -9

AJ Griffin

AJ Griffin

30′ · -6

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

5′ · -8

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

7′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and ATL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Toronto Raptors

  • Hernangomez, VanVleet, Anunoby, Barnes, and Young played 17.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • VanVleet, Anunoby, Barnes, Koloko, and Young played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Anunoby, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Capela played 14.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 14 points.

  • Murray, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Capela played 9.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Toronto Raptors

  • Hernangomez, Anunoby, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Anunoby, Flynn, Koloko, and Young played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Young, and Birch played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Anunoby, Flynn, Dowtin, Barnes, and Koloko played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Young played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Flynn, Dowtin, Barnes, Koloko, and Young played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Hunter, Griffin, Holiday, and Capela played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Murray, Collins, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Collins, Okongwu, Griffin, and Holiday played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holiday, Young, Johnson, Griffin, and Capela played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Griffin, and Capela played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Collins, Holiday, Hunter, and Okongwu played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Holiday, Okongwu, Johnson, and Griffin played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Collins, Holiday, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.051
105.9% of capacity
State Farm Arena · Atlanta
Scoring
246
combined points
16.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:20.7
Trae Young → Scottie Barnes
Young (ATL) swipes down and initiates contact with Barnes' (TOR) arm that affects his ability to gather the ball at the end of his drive.