SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 November 2022

ORL113–114IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 30 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when ORL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ORL

Bol Bol
Mo Bamba
Jalen Suggs
Franz Wagner
R.J. Hampton

Bol · Bamba · Suggs · Wagner · Hampton

Closing lineup · IND

Myles Turner
Andrew Nembhard
Bennedict Mathurin
T.J. McConnell
Aaron Nesmith

Turner · Nembhard · Mathurin · McConnell · Nesmith

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ORL
Bol Bol

Bol Bol

34′ · +3

Mo Bamba

Mo Bamba

33′ · +18

Jalen Suggs

Jalen Suggs

33′ · +3

Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner

31′ · -4

Chuma Okeke

Chuma Okeke

25′ · -7

Terrence Ross

Terrence Ross

24′ · +1

Caleb Houstan

Caleb Houstan

19′ · -4

Admiral Schofield

Admiral Schofield

13′ · -20

R.J. Hampton

R.J. Hampton

25′ · +1

Kevon Harris

Kevon Harris

4′ · +4

IND
Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

34′ · +4

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

34′ · +3

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

30′ · +7

Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith

25′ · +2

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

18′ · -16

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

27′ · -6

Isaiah Jackson

Isaiah Jackson

7′ · -5

Oshae Brissett

Oshae Brissett

20′ · -6

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

14′ · -3

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

25′ · +17

Terry Taylor

Terry Taylor

5′ · +8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Orlando Magic

  • Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Wagner, and Suggs played 11.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Schofield, Hampton, Wagner, Houstan, and Ross played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bamba, Hampton, Wagner, Houstan, and Ross played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Hield, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Smith played 14.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Turner, Brissett, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Turner, Hield, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Orlando Magic

  • Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Hampton, and Suggs played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bamba, Bol, Hampton, Wagner, and Suggs played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bamba, Bol, Okeke, Suggs, and Ross played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Bol, Okeke, Schofield, Suggs, and Ross played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Bamba, Bol, Hampton, Suggs, and Ross played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Bol, Hampton, Harris, Suggs, and Houstan played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Okeke, Schofield, Wagner, Houstan, and Ross played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bamba, Bol, Schofield, Wagner, and Ross played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bamba, Hampton, Harris, Suggs, and Houstan played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Hield, Haliburton, Smith, and Mathurin played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brissett, Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hield, Haliburton, Nesmith, Smith, and Taylor played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Brissett, Nesmith, Taylor, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Turner, Hield, Brissett, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nembhard, Haliburton, Smith, Jackson, and Mathurin played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brissett, Haliburton, Nesmith, Taylor, and Mathurin played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Turner, Hield, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Smith played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brissett, Nembhard, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hield, Brissett, Haliburton, Smith, and Mathurin played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Turner, Brissett, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
14.478
80.8% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Scoring
227
combined points
2.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:07.8
Jalen Suggs → Tyrese Haliburton
Suggs (ORL) moves into Halbiurton's (IND) lower body, dislodging him from his position during the loose ball.