Win probability changed during the game. · 7 December 2022
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Poole · Thompson · Jerome · DiVincenzo · Moody
Closing lineup · UTA
Beasley · Olynyk · Alexander-Walker · Fontecchio · Agbaji
Jordan Poole
37′ · +4
Klay Thompson
36′ · -7
Kevon Looney
29′ · +10
Ty Jerome
24′ · -8
JaMychal Green
17′ · -4
Jonathan Kuminga
30′ · +8
Donte DiVincenzo
28′ · -7
Anthony Lamb
16′ · -9
Moses Moody
19′ · +12
James Wiseman
5′ · -3
Jordan Clarkson
37′ · +2
Malik Beasley
34′ · +6
Kelly Olynyk
30′ · -1
Collin Sexton
27′ · +6
Walker Kessler
24′ · 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
29′ · -11
Jarred Vanderbilt
24′ · -3
Simone Fontecchio
20′ · +4
Rudy Gay
15′ · -2
Ochai Agbaji
0′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Jerome, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 11.6 minutes together.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Lamb, and Moody played 5.9 minutes together.
Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Moody, and Thompson played 5.8 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Utah Jazz
Beasley, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 14.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Fontecchio, Gay, and Clarkson played 9.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
DiVincenzo, Jerome, Wiseman, Lamb, and Thompson played 5.0 minutes together.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Lamb, and Thompson played 4.5 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Kuminga, and Thompson played 4.4 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, and Thompson played 1.8 minutes together.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Moody, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.
Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Moody, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Kuminga, and Moody played 1.1 minutes together.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, and Moody played 1.1 minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Fontecchio, and Gay played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Fontecchio, and Clarkson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Fontecchio, and Olynyk played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, and Olynyk played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, and Olynyk played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

