SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 14 December 2022

MIA110–108OKC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when MIA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Tyler Herro
Caleb Martin
Kyle Lowry
Victor Oladipo
Dewayne Dedmon

Herro · Martin · Lowry · Oladipo · Dedmon

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Josh Giddey
Luguentz Dort
Isaiah Joe
Mike Muscala

Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Dort · Joe · Muscala

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIA
Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

40′ · 0

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin

34′ · -12

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

33′ · -14

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry

29′ · -10

Max Strus

Max Strus

18′ · -14

Victor Oladipo

Victor Oladipo

31′ · +18

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

18′ · +14

Dewayne Dedmon

Dewayne Dedmon

15′ · +14

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

23′ · +14

OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

36′ · +10

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

36′ · +15

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

34′ · +11

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

31′ · -1

Darius Bazley

Darius Bazley

31′ · +13

Aleksej Pokusevski

Aleksej Pokusevski

8′ · -13

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

17′ · +5

Mike Muscala

Mike Muscala

10′ · -1

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

25′ · -17

Eugene Omoruyi

Eugene Omoruyi

8′ · -14

Tre Mann

Tre Mann

5′ · -18

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

  • Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, Dedmon, and Oladipo played 13.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Herro, and Lowry played 13.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 16 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Lowry, and Oladipo played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 18.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Giddey, and Wiggins played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bazley, Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, and Williams played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Herro, and Oladipo played 5.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Highsmith, and Lowry played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Lowry, and Oladipo played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Highsmith, Strus, Lowry, Dedmon, and Oladipo played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Wiggins, and Muscala played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Pokusevski, Mann, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Muscala played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Pokusevski, Joe, Wiggins, and Muscala played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Mann, Giddey, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Pokusevski, and Giddey played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
14.783
81.2% of capacity
Paycom Center · Oklahoma City
Scoring
218
combined points
11.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:01.5
Dewayne Dedmon → Josh Giddey
Dedmon (MIA) extends a hand into Giddey's (OKC) back, which affects his shot attempt near the rim.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:27.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander → Heat
Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) gathers the ball on his right foot and hops consecutively on it.
Foul: Personal · 01:11.5
Kyle Lowry → Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Lowry (MIA) initiates contact with Gilgeous-Alexander's (OKC) arm that affects his ability to make the pass.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:12.0
Bam Adebayo → Thunder
Adebayo (MIA) fails to fully clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.