Win probability changed during the game. · 14 December 2022
It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when MIA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIA
Herro · Martin · Lowry · Oladipo · Dedmon
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Dort · Joe · Muscala
Tyler Herro
40′ · 0
Caleb Martin
34′ · -12
Bam Adebayo
33′ · -14
Kyle Lowry
29′ · -10
Max Strus
18′ · -14
Victor Oladipo
31′ · +18
Haywood Highsmith
18′ · +14
Dewayne Dedmon
15′ · +14
Duncan Robinson
23′ · +14
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
36′ · +10
Josh Giddey
36′ · +15
Luguentz Dort
34′ · +11
Jalen Williams
31′ · -1
Darius Bazley
31′ · +13
Aleksej Pokusevski
8′ · -13
Isaiah Joe
17′ · +5
Mike Muscala
10′ · -1
Aaron Wiggins
25′ · -17
Eugene Omoruyi
8′ · -14
Tre Mann
5′ · -18
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and OKC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Miami Heat
Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, Dedmon, and Oladipo played 13.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Herro, and Lowry played 13.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 16 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Lowry, and Oladipo played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 18.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Giddey, and Wiggins played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bazley, Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, and Williams played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Herro, and Oladipo played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Highsmith, and Lowry played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Lowry, and Oladipo played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Highsmith, Strus, Lowry, Dedmon, and Oladipo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Wiggins, and Muscala played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Pokusevski, Mann, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Muscala played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Pokusevski, Joe, Wiggins, and Muscala played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mann, Giddey, Wiggins, Omoruyi, and Williams played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Pokusevski, and Giddey played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

