Win probability changed during the game. · 16 December 2022
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Durant · Irving · Simmons · Harris · Watanabe
Closing lineup · TOR
VanVleet · Hernangomez · Barnes · Siakam · Flynn
Kevin Durant
37′ · +9
Kyrie Irving
35′ · +2
Royce O'Neale
32′ · -4
Ben Simmons
32′ · +7
Nic Claxton
26′ · -2
Joe Harris
23′ · -4
T.J. Warren
17′ · +3
Yuta Watanabe
21′ · +12
Edmond Sumner
4′ · -6
Seth Curry
7′ · -6
Cam Thomas
5′ · +4
Fred VanVleet
43′ · -1
Juancho Hernangomez
41′ · -1
Scottie Barnes
40′ · -7
Pascal Siakam
37′ · -9
Christian Koloko
21′ · +6
Chris Boucher
16′ · -5
Malachi Flynn
28′ · +3
Thaddeus Young
14′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
O'Neale, Simmons, Claxton, Durant, and Irving played 13.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Watanabe, Thomas, Durant, and Warren played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
O'Neale, Simmons, Irving, Curry, and Harris played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Siakam, Hernangomez, VanVleet, Barnes, and Koloko played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, and Barnes played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Young played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
O'Neale, Simmons, Durant, Irving, and Warren played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sumner, Watanabe, Durant, Harris, and Warren played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Watanabe, Claxton, Durant, Harris, and Warren played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Durant, and Irving played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Watanabe, Claxton, Durant, Irving, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
O'Neale, Watanabe, Claxton, Irving, and Harris played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Claxton, Durant, Irving, Harris, and Warren played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
O'Neale, Sumner, Claxton, Curry, and Harris played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
O'Neale, Claxton, Irving, Curry, and Harris played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Irving, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Simmons, Irving, Harris, and Warren played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Simmons, Durant, Irving, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Watanabe, Durant, Irving, and Harris played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Simmons, Watanabe, Claxton, Durant, and Irving played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Siakam, Hernangomez, VanVleet, Boucher, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, and Koloko played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Boucher, Flynn, Barnes, and Young played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Boucher, Flynn, Barnes, and Young played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Hernangomez, Boucher, Flynn, and Young played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Flynn, Barnes, and Koloko played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Siakam, VanVleet, Boucher, Flynn, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Hernangomez, VanVleet, Boucher, and Koloko played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hernangomez, VanVleet, Boucher, Flynn, and Young played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

