SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 28 December 2022

MIN118–119NOP
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ NOP winsMIN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when MIN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIN

Anthony Edwards
D'Angelo Russell
Jaden McDaniels
Naz Reid
Jaylen Nowell

Edwards · Russell · McDaniels · Reid · Nowell

Closing lineup · NOP

CJ McCollum
Naji Marshall
Zion Williamson
Dyson Daniels
Jaxson Hayes

McCollum · Marshall · Williamson · Daniels · Hayes

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIN
Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

39′ · -5

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

38′ · +5

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

34′ · +2

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers

33′ · -10

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

29′ · -6

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

25′ · +6

Jaylen Nowell

Jaylen Nowell

25′ · -2

Bryn Forbes

Bryn Forbes

13′ · +4

Nathan Knight

Nathan Knight

3′ · +1

NOP
CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum

37′ · +3

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

35′ · +3

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson

34′ · +3

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

29′ · +2

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

27′ · +10

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr.

16′ · -1

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

18′ · -5

Devonte' Graham

Devonte' Graham

16′ · +2

Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado

11′ · -10

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

17′ · -2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and NOP.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Rivers, and Gobert played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Rivers played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 13.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hayes, Marshall, Alvarado, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Forbes, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Gobert played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, McDaniels, Rivers, and Gobert played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Forbes, Nowell, Reid, and McDaniels played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Forbes, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Russell, Reid, Edwards, Knight, and Rivers played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Knight played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Alvarado, and Valanciunas played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Nance, Williamson, Murphy, Daniels, and McCollum played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Graham, Williamson, Alvarado, and Daniels played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and Daniels played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and McCollum played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Williamson, Hayes, Murphy, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Williamson, Marshall, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Graham, Williamson, Hayes, Murphy, and Daniels played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nance, Marshall, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Graham, Williamson, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.669
110.7% of capacity
Smoothie King Center · New Orleans
Scoring
237
combined points
7.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors