Win probability changed during the game. · 28 December 2022
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Russell · McDaniels · Reid · Nowell
Closing lineup · NOP
McCollum · Marshall · Williamson · Daniels · Hayes
Anthony Edwards
39′ · -5
D'Angelo Russell
38′ · +5
Jaden McDaniels
34′ · +2
Austin Rivers
33′ · -10
Rudy Gobert
29′ · -6
Naz Reid
25′ · +6
Jaylen Nowell
25′ · -2
Bryn Forbes
13′ · +4
Nathan Knight
3′ · +1
CJ McCollum
37′ · +3
Naji Marshall
35′ · +3
Zion Williamson
34′ · +3
Jonas Valanciunas
29′ · +2
Trey Murphy III
27′ · +10
Larry Nance Jr.
16′ · -1
Dyson Daniels
18′ · -5
Devonte' Graham
16′ · +2
Jose Alvarado
11′ · -10
Jaxson Hayes
17′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Rivers, and Gobert played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Nowell, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Rivers played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 13.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hayes, Marshall, Alvarado, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forbes, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Gobert played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Nowell, McDaniels, Rivers, and Gobert played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Forbes, Nowell, Reid, and McDaniels played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Forbes, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Reid, Edwards, Knight, and Rivers played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Knight played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Graham, Hayes, Marshall, Alvarado, and Valanciunas played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Nance, Williamson, Murphy, Daniels, and McCollum played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Graham, Williamson, Alvarado, and Daniels played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Nance, Graham, Williamson, Murphy, and Daniels played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and McCollum played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williamson, Hayes, Murphy, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williamson, Marshall, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Nance, Williamson, Marshall, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Graham, Williamson, Hayes, Murphy, and Daniels played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Nance, Marshall, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Graham, Williamson, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

