Win probability changed during the game. · 30 December 2022
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Clarkson · Markkanen · Conley · Olynyk · Sexton
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Sabonis · Barnes · Huerter · Murray
Jordan Clarkson
35′ · -5
Lauri Markkanen
34′ · -1
Mike Conley
30′ · -1
Kelly Olynyk
29′ · -4
Jarred Vanderbilt
24′ · -16
Collin Sexton
29′ · +4
Walker Kessler
24′ · +17
Rudy Gay
12′ · +5
Malik Beasley
23′ · -4
De'Aaron Fox
39′ · +8
Domantas Sabonis
37′ · +3
Harrison Barnes
32′ · 0
Kevin Huerter
30′ · +5
Keegan Murray
27′ · -2
Davion Mitchell
23′ · -2
Malik Monk
19′ · -1
Trey Lyles
19′ · 0
Richaun Holmes
11′ · -2
KZ Okpala
3′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, and Clarkson played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 17.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Holmes, Lyles, Fox, Monk, and Mitchell played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Conley, and Olynyk played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Markkanen, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Gay played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Kessler, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Conley played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Lyles, Fox, Monk, and Okpala played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, and Murray played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Mitchell played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Murray played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

