Win probability changed during the game. · 31 December 2022
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 31 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when MIA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIA
Adebayo · Herro · Strus · Oladipo · Vincent
Closing lineup · UTA
Markkanen · Clarkson · Olynyk · Conley · Sexton
Bam Adebayo
36′ · +6
Tyler Herro
34′ · -2
Max Strus
31′ · +8
Kyle Lowry
26′ · -4
Haywood Highsmith
17′ · -9
Victor Oladipo
35′ · +4
Orlando Robinson
12′ · -3
Jamal Cain
4′ · -5
Gabe Vincent
24′ · +5
Duncan Robinson
21′ · +12
Lauri Markkanen
36′ · -1
Jordan Clarkson
35′ · +8
Kelly Olynyk
33′ · -2
Mike Conley
31′ · -7
Jarred Vanderbilt
17′ · -12
Walker Kessler
30′ · +8
Collin Sexton
24′ · -1
Rudy Gay
15′ · -1
Malik Beasley
18′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Strus, and Oladipo played 11.8 minutes together.
Adebayo, Highsmith, Strus, Herro, and Lowry played 11.7 minutes together.
Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Herro, and Oladipo played 6.1 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 12.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Miami Heat
Highsmith, Herro, Robinson, Lowry, and Oladipo played 5.0 minutes together.
Robinson, Herro, Robinson, Lowry, and Oladipo played 4.0 minutes together.
Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Cain, and Oladipo played 2.0 minutes together.
Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, Lowry, and Oladipo played 1.8 minutes together.
Herro, Robinson, Cain, Lowry, and Oladipo played 1.7 minutes together.
Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Herro, and Oladipo played 1.4 minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Gay played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Olynyk played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

