SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 31 December 2022

MIA126–123UTA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 31 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ UTA winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when MIA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Bam Adebayo
Tyler Herro
Max Strus
Victor Oladipo
Gabe Vincent

Adebayo · Herro · Strus · Oladipo · Vincent

Closing lineup · UTA

Lauri Markkanen
Jordan Clarkson
Kelly Olynyk
Mike Conley
Collin Sexton

Markkanen · Clarkson · Olynyk · Conley · Sexton

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIA
Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

36′ · +6

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

34′ · -2

Max Strus

Max Strus

31′ · +8

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry

26′ · -4

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

17′ · -9

Victor Oladipo

Victor Oladipo

35′ · +4

Orlando Robinson

Orlando Robinson

12′ · -3

Jamal Cain

Jamal Cain

4′ · -5

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

24′ · +5

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

21′ · +12

UTA
Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen

36′ · -1

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson

35′ · +8

Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk

33′ · -2

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

31′ · -7

Jarred Vanderbilt

Jarred Vanderbilt

17′ · -12

Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler

30′ · +8

Collin Sexton

Collin Sexton

24′ · -1

Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay

15′ · -1

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

18′ · -7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and UTA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Strus, and Oladipo played 11.8 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Highsmith, Strus, Herro, and Lowry played 11.7 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Herro, and Oladipo played 6.1 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Utah Jazz

  • Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 12.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 9.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

  • Highsmith, Herro, Robinson, Lowry, and Oladipo played 5.0 minutes together.

  • Robinson, Herro, Robinson, Lowry, and Oladipo played 4.0 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Cain, and Oladipo played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, Lowry, and Oladipo played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Herro, Robinson, Cain, Lowry, and Oladipo played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Herro, and Oladipo played 1.4 minutes together.

Utah Jazz

  • Markkanen, Kessler, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and Gay played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Gay, Conley, and Clarkson played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Olynyk played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Conley, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.206
99.5% of capacity
Delta Center · Salt Lake City
Scoring
249
combined points
19.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:26.4
Bam Adebayo → Walker Kessler
Adebayo (MIA) grabs Kessler's (UTA) left arm, affecting his ability to secure the rebound.