SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 January 2023

DET122–119GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsDET wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when DET does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DET

Killian Hayes
Bojan Bogdanovic
Isaiah Stewart
Alec Burks
Saddiq Bey

Hayes · Bogdanovic · Stewart · Burks · Bey

Closing lineup · GSW

Donte DiVincenzo
Klay Thompson
Kevon Looney
Anthony Lamb
Ty Jerome

DiVincenzo · Thompson · Looney · Lamb · Jerome

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DET
Killian Hayes

Killian Hayes

35′ · +12

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bojan Bogdanovic

33′ · +5

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

32′ · +5

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

31′ · +4

Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

27′ · -3

Alec Burks

Alec Burks

31′ · 0

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

29′ · -3

Hamidou Diallo

Hamidou Diallo

18′ · -5

Rodney McGruder

Rodney McGruder

5′ · 0

GSW
Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

34′ · -14

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

34′ · 0

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

34′ · +4

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

30′ · 0

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

28′ · -5

Anthony Lamb

Anthony Lamb

28′ · +2

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

27′ · -2

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

15′ · +3

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

11′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Detroit Pistons

  • Hayes, Stewart, Ivey, Duren, and Bogdanovic played 14.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Hayes, Bey, Stewart, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 9.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Diallo, Bey, Stewart, Ivey, and Burks played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 9.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, Thompson, and Green played 8.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Jerome, Poole, Moody, Baldwin, and Green played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Detroit Pistons

  • Diallo, Bey, Ivey, Duren, and Burks played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Hayes, Duren, Burks, Bogdanovic, and McGruder played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Diallo, Hayes, Bey, Duren, and Bogdanovic played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hayes, Bey, Duren, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Diallo, Hayes, Bey, Duren, and Burks played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Jerome, Poole, Lamb, and Moody played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Thompson played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, and Thompson played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Jerome, Poole, Baldwin, and Green played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jerome, Lamb, Moody, Thompson, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Looney, Jerome, Lamb, Moody, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Baldwin, and Thompson played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Jerome, Baldwin, Thompson, and Green played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Moody played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Poole, and Lamb played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
241
combined points
11.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

24 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors