Win probability changed during the game. · 11 January 2023
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
LaVine · Vucevic · Williams · Caruso · White
Closing lineup · WAS
Kuzma · Avdija · Morris · Gibson · Wright
Zach LaVine
41′ · +5
Nikola Vucevic
39′ · -2
Patrick Williams
33′ · -9
Ayo Dosunmu
29′ · -4
Alex Caruso
28′ · -16
Coby White
29′ · +6
Derrick Jones Jr.
18′ · +5
Goran Dragic
15′ · -1
Andre Drummond
8′ · +1
Kyle Kuzma
38′ · +11
Deni Avdija
35′ · +1
Monte Morris
29′ · +7
Taj Gibson
25′ · +6
Corey Kispert
25′ · +9
Rui Hachimura
20′ · -12
Delon Wright
25′ · -4
Anthony Gill
23′ · -3
Will Barton
8′ · -3
Jordan Goodwin
14′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, Williams, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 16.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, White, Dragic, Drummond, and LaVine played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Washington Wizards
Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, Kispert, and Gibson played 15.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Wright, Kuzma, Hachimura, Gill, and Barton played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wright, Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, and Gibson played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Caruso, White, Williams, Vucevic, and LaVine played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, White, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Caruso, White, Dragic, and Vucevic played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, White, Dragic, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, White, Williams, Dragic, and Drummond played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Caruso, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Caruso, Dragic, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jones, Caruso, White, Williams, and Dragic played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Washington Wizards
Wright, Hachimura, Avdija, Gill, and Goodwin played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Kuzma, Gill, Kispert, and Goodwin played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wright, Hachimura, Gill, Kispert, and Goodwin played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Morris, Hachimura, Avdija, Kispert, and Gibson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wright, Kuzma, Hachimura, Avdija, and Gibson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, Gill, and Goodwin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Morris, Hachimura, Avdija, Gill, and Goodwin played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, Gill, and Kispert played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Morris, Avdija, Gill, Kispert, and Goodwin played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

