SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 16 January 2023

UTA126–125MIN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIN winsUTA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when UTA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · UTA

Malik Beasley
Jordan Clarkson
Walker Kessler
Mike Conley
Ochai Agbaji

Beasley · Clarkson · Kessler · Conley · Agbaji

Closing lineup · MIN

Anthony Edwards
Kyle Anderson
D'Angelo Russell
Jaden McDaniels
Taurean Prince

Edwards · Anderson · Russell · McDaniels · Prince

Q1Q2Q3Q4
UTA
Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

33′ · +4

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson

33′ · +3

Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler

31′ · 0

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

30′ · +9

Jarred Vanderbilt

Jarred Vanderbilt

26′ · -2

Ochai Agbaji

Ochai Agbaji

31′ · +3

Collin Sexton

Collin Sexton

26′ · -1

Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay

10′ · -9

Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen Horton-Tucker

8′ · -5

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

10′ · +3

MIN
Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

36′ · -2

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

34′ · -8

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

31′ · +3

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

21′ · +11

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

5′ · 0

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

22′ · -6

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

22′ · -2

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers

27′ · -4

Jaylen Nowell

Jaylen Nowell

22′ · +2

Luka Garza

Luka Garza

11′ · -3

Nathan Knight

Nathan Knight

9′ · +4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and MIN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Utah Jazz

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 9.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Agbaji, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, and Agbaji played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 7.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Anderson played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Prince, Nowell, Edwards, Knight, and Rivers played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Utah Jazz

  • Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, and Clarkson played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Agbaji, and Gay played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Agbaji, and Clarkson played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, and Kessler played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Sexton, Vanderbilt, Agbaji, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, and Conley played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Prince, Nowell, Garza, and Rivers played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, Knight, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Prince, Edwards, Garza, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Russell, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Edwards, Garza, and Anderson played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Nowell, Reid, and Rivers played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nowell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Prince, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Prince, Nowell, Garza, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Nowell, McDaniels, Knight, and Rivers played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nowell, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Nowell, Edwards, McDaniels, Garza, and Anderson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Prince, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.477
91.4% of capacity
Target Center · Minneapolis
Scoring
251
combined points
21.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors