Win probability changed during the game. · 25 January 2023
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Morant · Bane · Clarke · Brooks · Williams
Closing lineup · GSW
Thompson · Green · Poole · DiVincenzo · Lamb
Ja Morant
35′ · +1
Desmond Bane
34′ · +8
Brandon Clarke
32′ · -5
Dillon Brooks
31′ · +1
Jaren Jackson Jr.
28′ · +7
Ziaire Williams
24′ · -19
Santi Aldama
21′ · +2
Tyus Jones
19′ · -1
Xavier Tillman
13′ · -5
David Roddy
3′ · 0
Stephen Curry
35′ · -3
Klay Thompson
34′ · +6
Draymond Green
32′ · +2
Jordan Poole
31′ · +15
Jonathan Kuminga
24′ · -16
Donte DiVincenzo
34′ · +7
Kevon Looney
20′ · -6
JaMychal Green
10′ · -2
Anthony Lamb
19′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Brooks, Jackson, Morant, Clarke, and Bane played 13.7 minutes together.
Jones, Jackson, Tillman, Bane, and Williams played 9.7 minutes together.
Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Williams, and Aldama played 6.0 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Memphis Grizzlies lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Golden State Warriors
Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 11.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, and Thompson played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Bane, and Aldama played 3.9 minutes together.
Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Aldama, and Roddy played 2.9 minutes together.
Jones, Tillman, Bane, Williams, and Aldama played 2.9 minutes together.
Brooks, Jackson, Morant, Clarke, and Williams played 2.1 minutes together.
Jones, Jackson, Morant, Bane, and Aldama played 1.8 minutes together.
Jones, Brooks, Morant, Clarke, and Bane played 1.7 minutes together.
Jones, Morant, Clarke, Williams, and Aldama played 1.4 minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
DiVincenzo, Poole, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Lamb, Curry, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, Green, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Lamb, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Thompson, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Curry, and Thompson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

