SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 25 January 2023

MEM120–122GSW
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsMEM wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when MEM does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MEM

Ja Morant
Desmond Bane
Brandon Clarke
Dillon Brooks
Ziaire Williams

Morant · Bane · Clarke · Brooks · Williams

Closing lineup · GSW

Klay Thompson
Draymond Green
Jordan Poole
Donte DiVincenzo
Anthony Lamb

Thompson · Green · Poole · DiVincenzo · Lamb

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MEM
Ja Morant

Ja Morant

35′ · +1

Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

34′ · +8

Brandon Clarke

Brandon Clarke

32′ · -5

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

31′ · +1

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

28′ · +7

Ziaire Williams

Ziaire Williams

24′ · -19

Santi Aldama

Santi Aldama

21′ · +2

Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones

19′ · -1

Xavier Tillman

Xavier Tillman

13′ · -5

David Roddy

David Roddy

3′ · 0

GSW
Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

35′ · -3

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

34′ · +6

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

32′ · +2

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

31′ · +15

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

24′ · -16

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

34′ · +7

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

20′ · -6

JaMychal Green

JaMychal Green

10′ · -2

Anthony Lamb

Anthony Lamb

19′ · +7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Brooks, Jackson, Morant, Clarke, and Bane played 13.7 minutes together.

  • Jones, Jackson, Tillman, Bane, and Williams played 9.7 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Williams, and Aldama played 6.0 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Memphis Grizzlies lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Golden State Warriors

  • Poole, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 11.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, and Thompson played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Bane, and Aldama played 3.9 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Morant, Clarke, Aldama, and Roddy played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Jones, Tillman, Bane, Williams, and Aldama played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Jackson, Morant, Clarke, and Williams played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Jones, Jackson, Morant, Bane, and Aldama played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Jones, Brooks, Morant, Clarke, and Bane played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Jones, Morant, Clarke, Williams, and Aldama played 1.4 minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • DiVincenzo, Poole, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Lamb, Curry, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Lamb, Curry, Green, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Looney, Poole, Kuminga, Curry, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Lamb, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Poole, Kuminga, Thompson, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Kuminga, Curry, and Thompson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
242
combined points
12.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

36 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Offensive · 00:17.2
Draymond Green → Dillon Brooks
Green (GSW) continues to re-establish himself following the initial contact with Brooks (MEM) and he creates further contact with Brooks that affects Brooks' ability to move around the screen.