Win probability changed during the game. · 11 February 2023
It was more exciting than 66% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Embiid · Harden · Harris · Tucker · McDaniels
Closing lineup · BKN
Bridges · Dinwiddie · Claxton · Johnson · O'Neale
Joel Embiid
37′ · +5
James Harden
37′ · -1
Tobias Harris
29′ · +2
P.J. Tucker
27′ · -3
De'Anthony Melton
14′ · -12
Tyrese Maxey
34′ · +17
Georges Niang
22′ · +4
Jalen McDaniels
16′ · -1
Shake Milton
14′ · +6
Paul Reed
11′ · -2
Mikal Bridges
34′ · -8
Dorian Finney-Smith
34′ · +2
Spencer Dinwiddie
31′ · +2
Nic Claxton
29′ · -1
Cameron Johnson
28′ · +5
Day'Ron Sharpe
3′ · -3
Royce O'Neale
17′ · -9
Joe Harris
16′ · +1
Ben Simmons
16′ · -1
Patty Mills
7′ · 0
Cam Thomas
18′ · -3
Yuta Watanabe
5′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and BKN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Melton, Tucker, Harden, Harris, and Embiid played 14.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
Maxey, Tucker, Harden, Harris, and Embiid played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Niang, Milton, McDaniels, Maxey, and Embiid played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brooklyn Nets
Finney-Smith, Bridges, Claxton, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 22.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
O'Neale, Simmons, Thomas, Mills, and Harris played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
O'Neale, Simmons, Finney-Smith, Thomas, and Harris played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Niang, McDaniels, Maxey, Reed, and Harden played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Maxey, Tucker, Harden, and Embiid played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Niang, Milton, McDaniels, Maxey, and Reed played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Milton, Maxey, Reed, Harden, and Harris played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Niang, Maxey, Harden, Harris, and Embiid played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brooklyn Nets
O'Neale, Simmons, Bridges, Thomas, and Harris played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Bridges, Johnson, Sharpe, and Dinwiddie played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Finney-Smith, Bridges, Watanabe, Claxton, and Dinwiddie played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Watanabe, Claxton, Johnson, Thomas, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Finney-Smith, Bridges, Claxton, and Thomas played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Simmons, Bridges, Mills, and Harris played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Watanabe, Claxton, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

