SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 23 February 2023

OKC119–120UTA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ UTA winsOKC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when OKC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Josh Giddey
Jalen Williams
Luguentz Dort
Isaiah Joe

Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Williams · Dort · Joe

Closing lineup · UTA

Lauri Markkanen
Walker Kessler
Jordan Clarkson
Talen Horton-Tucker
Ochai Agbaji

Markkanen · Kessler · Clarkson · Horton-Tucker · Agbaji

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

41′ · 0

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

38′ · 0

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

38′ · -11

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

36′ · -4

Jaylin Williams

Jaylin Williams

27′ · -7

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

11′ · +5

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

28′ · +6

Tre Mann

Tre Mann

14′ · +8

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

21′ · -1

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

12′ · -1

UTA
Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen

40′ · +14

Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler

37′ · +8

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson

36′ · 0

Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen Horton-Tucker

35′ · +10

Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk

31′ · +13

Ochai Agbaji

Ochai Agbaji

22′ · -16

Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay

4′ · 0

Kris Dunn

Kris Dunn

17′ · -11

Damian Jones

Damian Jones

13′ · -9

Juan Toscano-Anderson

Juan Toscano-Anderson

15′ · -5

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

14′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and UTA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 16.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Williams, Joe, Giddey, Williams, and Saric played 9.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Joe, Robinson-Earl, and Mann played 5.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Utah Jazz

  • Markkanen, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 22.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 16 points.

  • Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Dunn, Jones, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, and Fontecchio played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Mann, Williams, and Williams played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Robinson-Earl, and Mann played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Williams, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Saric played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Williams played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Williams played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Joe, Mann, and Giddey played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Utah Jazz

  • Dunn, Jones, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Fontecchio played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Dunn, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Fontecchio played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Markkanen, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, and Clarkson played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Dunn, Jones, Markkanen, Agbaji, and Gay played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Dunn, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Kessler, and Fontecchio played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Dunn, Jones, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Clarkson played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Markkanen, Agbaji, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, and Fontecchio played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.206
99.5% of capacity
Delta Center · Salt Lake City
Scoring
239
combined points
9.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

51 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:06.6
Kenrich Williams → Walker Kessler
Williams (OKC) slides his hand off the ball and onto Kessler's (UTA) arm, affecting his layup attempt.
Foul: Personal · 00:53.1
Jalen Williams → Jordan Clarkson
Williams (OKC) comes across Clarkson's (UTA) left arm, which affects his ability to pass.
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:28.0
Kelly Olynyk → Josh Giddey
Olynyk (UTA) clamps and holds Giddey's (OKC) arm, which affects his ability to pursue the rebound.