Win probability changed during the game. · 23 February 2023
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Giddey · Williams · Dort · Joe
Closing lineup · UTA
Markkanen · Kessler · Clarkson · Horton-Tucker · Agbaji
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
41′ · 0
Josh Giddey
38′ · 0
Jalen Williams
38′ · -11
Luguentz Dort
36′ · -4
Jaylin Williams
27′ · -7
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
11′ · +5
Kenrich Williams
28′ · +6
Tre Mann
14′ · +8
Isaiah Joe
21′ · -1
Dario Saric
12′ · -1
Lauri Markkanen
40′ · +14
Walker Kessler
37′ · +8
Jordan Clarkson
36′ · 0
Talen Horton-Tucker
35′ · +10
Kelly Olynyk
31′ · +13
Ochai Agbaji
22′ · -16
Rudy Gay
4′ · 0
Kris Dunn
17′ · -11
Damian Jones
13′ · -9
Juan Toscano-Anderson
15′ · -5
Simone Fontecchio
14′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 16.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Williams, Joe, Giddey, Williams, and Saric played 9.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Joe, Robinson-Earl, and Mann played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 22.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Dunn, Jones, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, and Fontecchio played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Mann, Williams, and Williams played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Robinson-Earl, and Mann played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Saric played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Robinson-Earl, Giddey, and Williams played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Giddey, and Williams played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Williams played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Joe, Mann, and Giddey played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Utah Jazz
Dunn, Jones, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Fontecchio played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dunn, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Fontecchio played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, and Clarkson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Dunn, Jones, Markkanen, Agbaji, and Gay played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Dunn, Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Kessler, and Fontecchio played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dunn, Jones, Toscano-Anderson, Agbaji, and Clarkson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Markkanen, Agbaji, Kessler, Olynyk, and Clarkson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Toscano-Anderson, Horton-Tucker, Kessler, and Fontecchio played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

