Win probability changed during the game. · 15 March 2023
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 29 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Sabonis · Barnes · Fox · Huerter · Monk
Closing lineup · CHI
DeRozan · LaVine · Vucevic · Dosunmu · Williams
Domantas Sabonis
40′ · +10
Harrison Barnes
36′ · +13
De'Aaron Fox
33′ · +5
Keegan Murray
30′ · +4
Kevin Huerter
28′ · +26
Davion Mitchell
15′ · -5
Malik Monk
24′ · -5
Kessler Edwards
18′ · -22
Chimezie Metu
8′ · -4
Alex Len
5′ · -5
Terence Davis
5′ · -2
DeMar DeRozan
40′ · -11
Zach LaVine
36′ · -3
Nikola Vucevic
35′ · -8
Patrick Beverley
29′ · -8
Ayo Dosunmu
28′ · -4
Coby White
28′ · +5
Patrick Williams
25′ · +13
Andre Drummond
13′ · +6
Dalen Terry
7′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 14.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Barnes played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Fox, Monk, Metu, Edwards, and Murray played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Chicago Bulls
Dosunmu, DeRozan, Beverley, Vucevic, and LaVine played 17.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
White, Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, and Drummond played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
White, DeRozan, Beverley, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Monk, Edwards, Mitchell, and Murray played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Davis, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Monk, Metu, Edwards, and Len played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Metu, Edwards, and Mitchell played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Edwards, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Murray, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Davis, Edwards, Mitchell, Barnes, and Len played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Edwards, and Murray played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Edwards, Mitchell, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Chicago Bulls
White, Williams, Beverley, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
White, Williams, Terry, DeRozan, and Vucevic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
White, Williams, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
White, Williams, Terry, Drummond, and LaVine played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Dosunmu, DeRozan, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

