SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 23 March 2023

CLE116–114BKN
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BKN winsCLE wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on BKN's side, but CLE won 116-114. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when CLE does.

Game context

Attendance
17.732
100% of capacity
Barclays Center · Brooklyn
Scoring
230
combined points
0.6 above the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Violation: Lane · 00:11.6
Donovan Mitchell → Nets
Mitchell (CLE) crosses the plane of the free throw line before it makes contact with the rim.
Foul: Shooting · 01:52.4
Nicolas Claxton → Caris LeVert
Claxton (BKN) makes clean contact with the ball and any contact with LeVert's (CLE) hand on the ball is incidental during his driving shot attempt.