Win probability changed during the game. · 3 November 2023
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Curry · Green · Paul · Payton · Moody
Closing lineup · OKC
Wallace · Holmgren · Giddey · Dort · Wiggins
Klay Thompson
33′ · 0
Stephen Curry
31′ · +5
Draymond Green
29′ · -1
Andrew Wiggins
27′ · -14
Kevon Looney
11′ · -5
Dario Saric
20′ · +3
Chris Paul
28′ · +6
Jonathan Kuminga
22′ · +3
Gary Payton II
22′ · +9
Moses Moody
18′ · +4
Cason Wallace
36′ · +4
Jalen Williams
35′ · 0
Chet Holmgren
32′ · -1
Josh Giddey
31′ · +4
Luguentz Dort
30′ · -5
Isaiah Joe
26′ · -2
Jaylin Williams
15′ · -2
Aaron Wiggins
17′ · -3
Vasilije Micic
12′ · -2
Ousmane Dieng
5′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and OKC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Moody, and Saric played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Looney, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 9.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 17.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Dort, Joe, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Joe, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Micic played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
Moody, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Kuminga, Moody, Wiggins, and Saric played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Payton, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Saric played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Saric played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Saric played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Kuminga, Thompson, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, and Wallace played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Joe, Wiggins, Williams, Dieng, and Micic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Dort, Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, Dieng, and Micic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Dort, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, Wallace, and Micic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

