SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 3 November 2023

GSW141–139OKC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsGSW wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when GSW does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · GSW

Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Chris Paul
Gary Payton II
Moses Moody

Curry · Green · Paul · Payton · Moody

Closing lineup · OKC

Cason Wallace
Chet Holmgren
Josh Giddey
Luguentz Dort
Aaron Wiggins

Wallace · Holmgren · Giddey · Dort · Wiggins

Q1Q2Q3Q4
GSW
Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

33′ · 0

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

31′ · +5

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

29′ · -1

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

27′ · -14

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

11′ · -5

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

20′ · +3

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

28′ · +6

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

22′ · +3

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

22′ · +9

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

18′ · +4

OKC
Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace

36′ · +4

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

35′ · 0

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

32′ · -1

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

31′ · +4

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

30′ · -5

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

26′ · -2

Jaylin Williams

Jaylin Williams

15′ · -2

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

17′ · -3

Vasilije Micic

Vasilije Micic

12′ · -2

Ousmane Dieng

Ousmane Dieng

5′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Moody, and Saric played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Looney, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 9.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 17.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Dort, Joe, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Joe, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Micic played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Golden State Warriors

  • Moody, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Kuminga, Moody, Wiggins, and Saric played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Payton, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Saric played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Saric played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Saric played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Kuminga, Thompson, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Joe, Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, and Wallace played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Joe, Wiggins, Williams, Dieng, and Micic played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Dort, Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, Dieng, and Micic played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Joe, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Dort, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Giddey, Wiggins, Holmgren, Wallace, and Micic played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.827
92.4% of capacity
Paycom Center · Oklahoma City
Scoring
280
combined points
51.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Palming · 01:12.4
Josh Giddey → Warriors
Giddey (OKC) brings his left hand underneath the ball before resuming his dribble.