Win probability changed during the game. · 28 November 2023
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on GSW's side, but SAC won 124-123. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Curry · Wiggins · Thompson · Green · Looney
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Sabonis · Huerter · Monk · Vezenkov
Stephen Curry
37′ · +7
Andrew Wiggins
36′ · -1
Klay Thompson
36′ · -5
Draymond Green
33′ · +5
Kevon Looney
29′ · +5
Dario Saric
17′ · -10
Gary Payton II
17′ · -9
Chris Paul
5′ · 0
Jonathan Kuminga
10′ · +4
Cory Joseph
8′ · +1
Moses Moody
13′ · -2
De'Aaron Fox
40′ · +9
Domantas Sabonis
37′ · -3
Kevin Huerter
33′ · +2
Harrison Barnes
26′ · -10
Chris Duarte
14′ · -10
Malik Monk
26′ · +12
Trey Lyles
24′ · +4
Davion Mitchell
9′ · -14
Kessler Edwards
5′ · -3
JaVale McGee
5′ · 0
Keon Ellis
6′ · +1
Sasha Vezenkov
15′ · +17
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 16.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Payton, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Looney, Moody, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Duarte, and Barnes played 12.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Vezenkov played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Ellis, and Barnes played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
Moody, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kuminga, Thompson, Joseph, Wiggins, and Saric played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Thompson, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Looney, Moody, Curry, Wiggins, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Payton, Kuminga, Thompson, Joseph, and Saric played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Payton, Curry, Green, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, Payton, Moody, Curry, and Green played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Looney, Moody, Thompson, Joseph, and Green played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Edwards, and McGee played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Duarte, and Mitchell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, McGee, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

