SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 28 November 2023

GSW123–124SAC
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAC winsGSW wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on GSW's side, but SAC won 124-123. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when GSW does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · GSW

Stephen Curry
Andrew Wiggins
Klay Thompson
Draymond Green
Kevon Looney

Curry · Wiggins · Thompson · Green · Looney

Closing lineup · SAC

De'Aaron Fox
Domantas Sabonis
Kevin Huerter
Malik Monk
Sasha Vezenkov

Fox · Sabonis · Huerter · Monk · Vezenkov

Q1Q2Q3Q4
GSW
Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

37′ · +7

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

36′ · -1

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

36′ · -5

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

33′ · +5

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

29′ · +5

Dario Saric

Dario Saric

17′ · -10

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

17′ · -9

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

5′ · 0

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

10′ · +4

Cory Joseph

Cory Joseph

8′ · +1

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

13′ · -2

SAC
De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

40′ · +9

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

37′ · -3

Kevin Huerter

Kevin Huerter

33′ · +2

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

26′ · -10

Chris Duarte

Chris Duarte

14′ · -10

Malik Monk

Malik Monk

26′ · +12

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

24′ · +4

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

9′ · -14

Kessler Edwards

Kessler Edwards

5′ · -3

JaVale McGee

JaVale McGee

5′ · 0

Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis

6′ · +1

Sasha Vezenkov

Sasha Vezenkov

15′ · +17

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and SAC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 16.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Payton, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Looney, Moody, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Sacramento Kings

  • Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Duarte, and Barnes played 12.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Vezenkov played 6.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Ellis, and Barnes played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Golden State Warriors

  • Moody, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kuminga, Thompson, Joseph, Wiggins, and Saric played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Payton, Kuminga, Thompson, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Looney, Moody, Curry, Wiggins, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Payton, Kuminga, Thompson, Joseph, and Saric played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payton, Curry, Green, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Looney, Payton, Curry, Thompson, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Looney, Payton, Moody, Curry, and Green played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Looney, Moody, Thompson, Joseph, and Green played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Sacramento Kings

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Edwards, and McGee played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Mitchell, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Duarte, and Mitchell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, McGee, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.039
102.4% of capacity
Golden 1 Center · Sacramento
Scoring
247
combined points
18.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

23 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:50.6
Andrew Wiggins → De'Aaron Fox
Looney's (GSW) right arm is not in a legal vertical position when arm contact occurs with Fox, affecting his driving shot attempt. The shooting foul should have been assessed to Looney instead of Wiggins (GSW).
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:52.7
Sasha Vezenkov → Andrew Wiggins
Vezenkov (SAC) clamps and pulls Wiggins' (GSW) left arm, which affects his range of motion during the rebounding opportunity.